Sun Sentinel Palm Beach Edition
Give & take for Dolphins
Trading up in NFL draft can be a lesson in tradeoffs.
The last time the Miami Dolphins did not make a draft-day trade was in 2007, the year former coach Cam Cameron selected Ohio State receiver Ted Ginn Jr. and his family.
That was a decade ago, and with one of the most aggressive NFL executives running Miami’s front office don’t be surprised if Mike Tannenbaum and company are able to wheel and deal Miami’s existing eight picks to land the talent they covet.
According to Tannenbaum, the team’s vice president of football operations, Miami’s executives are already working on it.
But what would the Dolphins need to spend to move up higher in the first round of next week’s NFL draft?
According to Drafttrek.com’s point system, the Dolphins would need these following point thresholds to do a deal:
To move up to Pick No. 2, swapping with the New York Giants, who obviously wouldn’t want to move down that far since they’d likely lose a shot to land one of this draft’s six elite prospects, Miami would need 950 points. That’s the equivalent of another mid-tier first-round pick. That probably means the Dolphins would have to send the Giants next year’s first-round selection and this year’s No. 11 pick, which is worth 1,250 points.
The New York Jets aren’t moving because of how many resources (three second-round picks) they gave the Indianapolis Colts to move up three spots. I suspect their goal is to select one of three quarterbacks — Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield, Wyoming’s Josh Allen, or UCLA’s Josh Rosen — and my money is on Mayfield knowing Jets coach Todd Bowles, whom I covered for four years when he was with the Dolphins.
Let us assume the Jets don’t select Mayfield, or that the Dolphins want to ensure they land Georgia linebacker Roquan Smith, who would help address Miami’s shortcomings at linebacker.
Cleveland’s second firstround pick (No. 4) is worth 1,800 points, so that means the Dolphins would have to give the Browns the equivalent of 550 points, which is worth an early secondround pick. The Dolphins’ second-round pick (No. 42) is worth 480 points, so that means the Dolphins would likely need to throw in their fourth rounder (49 points), and change to possibly make a deal happen. The problem is, the Dolphins don’t own a fifth rounder, which is what is needed to account for the missing 21 points.
And considering the Browns don’t exactly need more draft picks, or more bottom-of-the-roster type players, I highly doubt they’d be interested in Miami’s sixth rounder and change (Miami owns two seventh-round picks). That means the Dolphins would likely have to trade future draft picks, or some veterans (think defensive end Andre Branch).
I don’t see how a deal with Cleveland gets done, so let us move on to Denver, which consistently has an open line of communication with Miami. And Broncos executive John Elway announced that the No. 5 pick is for sale on Thursday.
If the Broncos, who signed Case Keenum this offseason and have Paxton Lynch, want a quarterback this could get tricky. But the NFL math says a trade would require 450 points, which is roughly the equivalent of Miami’s secondround pick (480).
That’s doable, but it would prevent the Dolphins from acquiring another potential starter, which is how most teams view a secondround pick. They give you the best bang for your buck in the draft because the players are locked up contractually for four years at $6-7 million.
For instance, last year’s No. 42 pick — New Orleans safety Marcus Williams — signed a four-year deal that was worth $6,240,410. And because he was drafted in the second round he’s ineligible for salary increases based on playing time. That means pick No. 42 is making roughly $1.5 million a season for four years, and the hope is that he’s a starter (think Jarvis Landry).
Good teams build rosters with those types of selections because it’s a value pick, but the player has to be good for the value part to kick in.
Say the player Miami targets gets past Denver, then the Colts (1,600 points), Buccaneers (1,500), Bears (1,400 points), 49ers (1,350) and Raiders (1,300) picks come into play. Don’t be surprised if those teams are willing to trade down because none of them need a quarterback, and the fifthyear option escalation that comes with making a top-10 pick.
The top-10 selections receive a salary equal to the average of the 10-highest salaries at their position, which could become troublesome if you select a quarterback, defensive end, offensive lineman, cornerback or receiver, which are all the five-highest paid positions in the NFL.
The wage for players picked 11 through 32 is the average of the third through 25th-highest salaries at the position. I’m told the fifthyear option price tag was a deciding factor in why Oakland traded the No. 3 pick to Miami in that the Dion Jordan draft of 2013.
Since Miami’s No. 11 pick is worth 1,250 the chart says it should not (doesn’t mean will not) cost more than Miami’s second-round pick this year (480), and it is really more equivalent to the combination of Miami’s third-round (225 points) and fourth-round pick (49 points).
Back in 2016, the Dolphins traded a sixth-round pick that year, and a thirdround and fourth-roundpick in 2017 to select receiver Leonte Carroo, who has had two subpar seasons, and is viewed as a player on the bubble to make the 53-man roster in September.
To make a similar deal like that Miami better make sure they hit on the prospect, or else it could become a wart on everyone’s resume.
The point is, Tannenbaum and company have shown the organization is willing to make a deal, and won’t shy away from giving up future draft picks to get the player they want.
It will be interesting to see if they manage to pull something off next week.