Sun Sentinel Palm Beach Edition
Marlins’ numbers don’t lie
Bad stats tell the story of Miami’s terrible start to the season
MIAMI — It is easy to pinpoint the failings that have led to one of the Marlins’ worst starts in 26 seasons.
When you have given up more runs than any team in the National League while scoring the second-fewest, a 7-17 record is an understandable result.
Miami ranks at or near the bottom of the league in every significant hitting and pitching statistical category. That includes last in slugging percentage (.319) and on-base-plus slugging (.618), while the pitching staff’s ERA (5.29) is 14th among 15 NL teams.
Miami is scoring an average of 3.4 runs a game while allowing 5.7.
Clearly, not a recipe for success. Nonetheless, the Marlins begin a six-game homestand Friday against the Rockies on a bit of an up-tick after back-to-back wins at Los Angeles against the reigning NL champion Dodgers.
It was the first time they have won consecutive games this season and gave them their first series win. It also shows it is way early to pile up the dreary numbers and bury the season.
The stats tell the tale of what has gone wrong but can’t be used to forecast what is to come. Although there are more metrics than ever before to analyze performance, none of them can account for the human element.
That is, there is no way to explain Mar-
lins rookie right-hander Trevor Richards thoroughly outpitching threetime Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw in Wednesday’s 8-6 victory — a game that wasn’t close until the Dodgers scored five runs in the last two innings against the bullpen.
ESPN reported it as one of the biggest baseball betting upsets of the past decade. A team as highly favored as the Dodgers were hadn’t lost since the Nationals upset the Twins and then-ace Johan Santana 3-1 on June 9, 2007, according to BetLabSports.com.
An impressive win, but the Marlins have much work to do to show it was more than an anomaly.
Their results to date reveal ineptitude in every phase of the game. Even in fielding, a strength in recent years, the Marlins’ defensive efficiency rating ranks 12th – they were fifth in 2017.
A major reason they struggle to score is due to a lack of power. They are last in extra-base hits with 44, including 17 home runs, which ranks 14th. The Reds, the only NL team with a worse record at 5-19, had 49 extra-base hits and were last with 16 homers.
Consequently, it often takes bunching several hits in an inning to produce a run. Run-scoring hits often prove elusive, as Miami has left 178 runners on base, tied with Cincinnati for third-most behind Washington (189) and Milwaukee (181).
The Marlins are also tied with the Reds for hitting into the most double plays (21).
Meanwhile, Marlins pitchers are 14th in ERA (5.29) – relievers are last at 5.68 – and WHIP (walks plus hits per inning). They are second-most generous in allowing homers (32) and walks (110) and are tied for 12th in highest batting average against (.250).
That is a long list of deficiencies, though not surprising for a team that had 12 players who were on their first Opening Day roster in the big leagues. Several others have come up from the minors and made debuts since, including Richards and Merandy Gonzalez, who got his first big-league win in relief Wednesday.
Ultimately, the measure of this season will be in development of the many young players. The latest turn through the rotation offered some promise in that regard as the four novice starters combined for a 1.64 ERA in their most recent starts.
Richards struck out 10 while holding the Dodgers to one hit in 4 2⁄3 scoreless innings. He wasn’t able to get the out he needed to qualify for his first win as his pitch count climbed to 100, but it was his best start by far.
Caleb Smith and Jarlin Garcia also posted career highs in strikeouts with 10 and seven, respectively, in six-inning outings. Dillon Peters, who had struggled on the road, had his best performance away from Marlins Park in holding the Dodgers to one run in the game the Marlins won 3-2 in a late-inning comeback.
Rookie Lewis Brinson continues to endure growing pains, his average lagging at .146 despite hitting three homers on the road trip.
The offense has gotten a boost from the return of J.T. Realmuto, who is hitting .385 and has four homers in seven games.
Veteran third baseman Martin Prado is also due back from the disabled list, maybe as soon as Friday. The plan is to keep rookie Brian Anderson’s bat in the lineup by utilizing him in the outfield and first base in addition to spelling Prado at third.
There has also been some unexpected power from shortstop Miguel Rojas, who has three homers including a threerun shot off Kershaw on Wednesday. Rojas had four homers in four seasons before this one.
It shows that players evolve and performance numbers shift. For this team, that can’t happen soon enough.