Sun Sentinel Palm Beach Edition
Vegas not ruling out LeBron-Heat reunion
MIAMI — Well, this seems to make little sense — until you factor perhaps the greatest game-changer of all into the equation.
According to the latest NBA futures from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, the Miami Heat are tied for the fifth-best odds to win next season’s NBA championship. Wait? What? More like: Wait? Who? Because until LeBron James’ potential NBA free agency is sorted out, the wise guys are playing it safe, with the Heat’s 20-1 odds to win next season’s championship behind only the 5-4 of the Golden State Warriors, 7-2 of both the Houston Rockets and Philadelphia 76ers, 8-1 of the Boston Celtics, and tied with the 20-1 of the Los Angeles Lakers, who failed to make the playoffs this past season. Somewhat shockingly, the current line also has the Heat ahead of the 30-1 of James’ current team, the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Bovada.lv, an offshore book, last week listed the Heat as 25-1 to create a LeBron reunion before the start of next season, with BetOnline putting the Heat’s chances for such a reunion at 20-1.
On the face of it, the Heat, who tied for the NBA’s 15th best record this past season, appear to be no better than treading water heading into the offseason, without a pick in either round of the June 21 NBA draft nor with cap space for the July 1 start of free agency.
But with James advancing to the NBA Finals the past eight seasons, including the current series against the Warriors, Vegas and those setting lines are playing it safe.
“When you have LeBron in free agency, you have to be careful,” Westgate SuperBook oddsmaker John Murray told ESPN. “You’ve got Philadelphia, Miami, the Lakers and even Houston as potential destinations. We cut all of those teams’ odds down, and we’ll raise back up the teams he doesn’t sign with.”
As a matter of perspective, the Heat stood at 100-1 and higher entering this past season, when they finished at 44-38, tying for the No. 6 seed in the Eastern Conference and exiting in the first round of the playoffs, falling 4-1 to the 76ers.
As for the never-say-never chances of a reunion with James, who spent four seasons with the Heat, advancing to the NBA Finals from 2011 to 2014, winning championships under Erik Spoelstra in 2012 and ’13, the odds might be even longer than the odds-makers perceive.
With James holding a $35.6 million player option for next season, he faces a late-June deadline for that decision. If he opts in, he could be traded for similar salary. If he opts out, the Heat’s means for staging a reunion would either require a major trim of current payroll through the selling off of assets or the swap of matching salary to Cleveland, with both the Cavaliers and James having to agree to such a post-July 1 swap.
Considering James’ stunning decision to leave the Cavaliers in 2010 and his equally surprising decision to return to Cleveland in 2014, bookmakers find themselves practicing prudence.
James has insisted he has yet to deliberate his future, to be left with only weeks between the close of the NBA Finals and the start of free agency. There would be even less time for a decision should he opt into the remaining season on his contract and push for a trade around the time of the draft, as Chris Paul did with last year’s shift from the Los Angeles Clippers to the Houston Rockets.
Of those viewed with reasonable odds to lure James from the Cavaliers, only the 76ers and Lakers have the necessary cap space. Suitors such as the Heat and Rockets would need to create trade packages suitable enough to entice the Cavaliers.