Poll shows positive signs for Democrats and Scott

A public opinion poll released Saturday of Puerto Ricans living in Florida reveals reasons for Democrats and Republicans to be relieved — and worried.

Good news for the Democrats: 57 percent of surveyed Puerto Ricans in Florida said they were most likely to vote for Democratic candidates. Just percent said they were most likely to vote for Republican. The rest were open to voting for either party.

Good news for the Republicans: The poll has some positive signs for Gov. Rick Scott, the GOP candidate challenging U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, D- Fla.

An influx of Puerto Ricans to Florida began in 2010 and intensified since Hurricane Maria devastated the island in 2017. As U.S. citizens, Puerto Ricans have the right to register and vote, and they’ve become a highly sought after group of voters in 2018.

An estimated 1.2 million Puerto Ri7

cans now live in Florida, a population that rivals the number of Cubans, who have historically been enormously influential in Florida politics, said Eduardo Gamarra, a political science professor at Florida International University.

“That has some longterm consequences in our state, politically speaking, especially if they turn out to vote,” Gamarra said.

Gamarra — who focuses on Latin American and Caribbean affairs and founded Latino Public Opinion Forum at the School of International and Public Affairs — said the poll was conducted May 10-20 with live callers speaking to 1,000 respondents by telephone. The survey has margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, which means something that receives 50 percent lies in a range of 46 percent to 54 percent.

The report was prepared for release at the “Nuestro Futuro” conference at FIU about the future of Puerto Ricans on the island and in the state.

The survey focused on four different groups of Puerto Ricans who came to Florida in different time periods.

Senate race

Scott and Nelson are competing hard for the votes of Puerto Ricans in Florida, with each calling himself a champion of postMaria recovery efforts. Both have made repeated visits there and both have trumpeted endorsements from Puerto Rican political leaders.

One objective for Scott is to avoid being tarnished by President Donald Trump, who is seen by many Puerto Ricans as having an indifferent response to the hurricane. In the survey, about 40 percent of each group of Puerto Ricans living in Florida said they had a “very bad” opinion of Trump, with 30 percent rating him as “bad.” His rating of “very good” ranged from 1 percent to 5 percent.

Scott, who can’t run again because of term limits, was an early supporter of Trump’s presidential candidacy and Trump was an early booster of a Scott Senate candidacy.

Scott is viewed much more positively than Trump. Though 43 percent of Puerto Ricans who came to the state before 2012 view him negatively, compared with 55 percent who see him positively, those who have arrived since view the governor much more positively.

Scott was rated positively by 82 percent of people who arrived in 2017 and 2018, 81 percent of those who arrived in 2015 and 2016, and by 79 percent of those who arrived from 2012 through 2014.

About 8 percent to 10 percent said they didn’t have an opinion about Scott.

Scott was much better known than Nelson, with 69 percent saying they have heard of the two-term governor and 50 percent saying they’d heard of Nelson, who is seeking his fourth term. By contrast, almost 100 percent of surveyed Puerto Ricans said they’d heard of Trump and 76 percent said they’d heard of U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla.

Nelson is viewed favorably by 57 percent to 66 percent in each of the four groups. He’s viewed unfavorably by about 30 percent of people who arrived from 2015 through 2018, 25 percent of people who arrived in 2012 and 2014, and by 18 percent of those of those who came before 2012.

Gamarra said Scott benefits from his high visibility. “They know Scott because Scott has been active,” he said. “I think it’s also a very strong message to Nelson that people don’t know him.”

Political influence

The survey shows many Puerto Ricans have longterm commitments to staying in the mainland U.S. The poll found 56 percent said they plan to stay indefinitely. Just 3 percent said they planned to stay less than a year. Some 41 percent said they didn’t know.

Many have registered to vote. Of those surveyed, 75 percent said they’d registered to vote in the U.S.

Among those who have registered, the majority has maintained the Puerto Rican alliance with the Democratic Party. The poll found 57 percent said they’d registered as Democrats, 12 percent as Republicans and 18 percent as independents. Some 13 percent responded that they weren’t sure.

The partisan breakdown was similar for almost everyone who said they came to the U.S. before 2017.

But among those who came to the U.S. in 2017 and 2018, a much smaller share — 39 percent — said they registered as Democrats. Some 7 percent registered Republicans, 25 percent as independents and 29 percent said they didn’t know.

The survey

The people conducting the survey were bilingual and most of the questions were asked in Spanish, Gamarra said. The poll was conducted by FIU and the civic group Puerto Rican Alliance of Florida.

About a quarter of the respondents were in each of four groups: people who arrived before 2011, from 2012-2014, in 2015 and 2016, and in 2017 and 2018.