NOAA sees quiet hurricane season

That brief chill you feel stepping into the ocean is offering more than relief from the summer heat this year — it’s also reducing the likelihood of a busy hurricane season.

National weather forecasters had good news Thursday when they reduced the number of predicted hurricanes for 2018 from their initial May estimates.

Cooler surface waters and an expected El Niño formation “now point to a less active season,” said Gerry Bell, the lead hurricane season forecaster for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

New predictions call for five to nine more named storms in 2018, in addition to the four

already recorded. That’s down from the 10 to 16 predicted in May.

There could be an additional two to five hurricanes, with up to two of those being major storms in the Category 3, 4 or 5 range with winds of 111 mph or more.

The report follows a similar prediction by experts at Colorado State University, who scaled back their estimates last week to a total of five hurricanes this year.

Bell said there is now a 60 percent chance of a below is similar to 2015. That year, there were 12 named storms and four hurricanes. Only two tropical storms made landfall that year, neither of them in Florida.-normal season, which he said

The weather service does not predict how many hurricanes will make landfall.

Bell said there’s also a 70 percent chance for El Niño to form in the Pacific Ocean within the next several months, which will produce wind shear to cut into any potential hurricane development in the Atlantic.

Despite the conditions that are “much more inhospitable” for hurricanes, Bell said residents should still be prepared as we enter the peak hurricane season. The season lasts through Nov. 30.

“It only takes one storm to have catastrophic impact on lives and communities,” Bell said.

So far, this year’s named storms have been hurricanes Beryl and Chris, Tropical Storm Debby and Subtropical Storm Alberto. None of these threatened Florida.

Surface water temperatures go through cycles of having warmer temperatures and then colder temperatures. The Atlantic temperatures have been in a warm cycle since 1995, Bell said, which would account for some of the heavy hurricane activity over the years since then.

He said it’s too early to know if this year’s temperatures are more than a blip, since the past two years have had very warm temperatures.