Sun Sentinel Palm Beach Edition
Polls: Nelson, Scott in Senate race tie
Two separate polls released Wednesday show the Bill Nelson-Rick Scott race for U.S. Senate is tied.
Both surveys show Republican Scott with a 1 percentage point lead over Democrat Nelson.
The Florida Atlantic University poll released Wednesday reported Scott had the support of 42 percent of likely voters. Nelson had 41 percent.
The Reuters/Ipsos/University of Virginia Center for Politics Poll reported Scott had the support of 46 percent of likely voters. Nelson had support of 45 percent of likely voters.
That backs up what the assessments of party activists and political analysts who see Florida’s U.S. Senate race as exceedingly close. Most voters have made up their minds and very few are undecided.
The results amount to ties because the margin of error in the FAU survey is plus or minus 3 percentage points and the credibility interval in the Reuters/Ipsos/UVA poll is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Trend
The FAU poll, which has been regularly questioning voters about the Senate race, shows a trend in Nelson’s direction.
Its Aug. 21 poll showed Scott with 45 percent and Nelson with 39 percent — a 6-point advantage for Scott.
In both July and May, Scott had 44 percent and Nelson had 40 percent — a 4-point advantage for Scott.
Polarized voters
The Senate contest shows the electorate is polarized, with Republicans overwhelmingly supporting Scott and Democrats overwhelmingly supporting Nelson.
Among likely Democratic voters, Reuters/Ipsos/UVA found Nelson had support of 85 percent. Among likely Republican voters, Scott had 90 percent. Among independent likely voters, Nelson was favored by 50 percent and Scott by 22 percent.
A large share of independents — 27 percent — said they preferred another candidate or hadn’t made up their minds.
Approval
Nelson is seeking a fourth term in the Senate. Scott has served two terms as governor but can’t run for re-election because of term limits.
Though the FAU poll shows most people have made up their minds, it shows many people don’t know a lot about Nelson or Scott.
Nelson’s approval was 37 percent, with 37 percent disapproval and 27 percent neutral or not having an opinion.
Scott had 43 percent approval, 38 percent disapproval, with 20 percent neutral or not having an opinion.
Fine print
The FAU Business and Economics Polling Initiative survey of 850 Florida likely voters was conducted online and through automated calls to people with landline telephones from Thursday through Sunday.
The Reuters/Ipsos/UVA Poll was conducted Sept. 5 to 12. A sample of 2,015 Florida adults, including 1,000 likely voters, were interviewed online.
Responses were weighted according to the latest government population estimates.
The Reuters/Ipsos/UVA poll didn’t come with the usual margin of error. Instead it reported a credibility interval of plus or minus 4 percentage points. A credibility interval is used as a range of accuracy for online polls in which respondents opt in to participating.