Atlantic disturbance could form into a tropical depression

After a brief quiet period in the Atlantic Ocean, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring a “large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms” that forecasters predict may develop into a tropical or subtropical depression on Friday or Saturday.

As of Wednesday morning, what is designated as Disturbance 1 was about 900 miles east of the Caribbean’s northern Leeward Islands and still more than 2,000 miles from South Florida. This system has become better organized since yesterday with increased thunderstorm activity, although the low's circulation is still not well defined.

The Miami-based Hurricane Center said in an 8 p.m. advisory that the system has a 40 percent chance of forming into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours and a 70 percent chance of formation over the next five days.

A cyclone is a closed-circulation rotating storm that depending on its windspeed intensity, is classified, from weakest to strongest, as a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane.

“This disturbance is expected to move northward over the next couple of days into an area where environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for development,” the advisory said. “A tropical or subtropical depression or storm is most likely to form on Friday or Saturday. After that time, the system is forecast to turn westward well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles.”

Meanwhile, Willa had weakened to a tropical depression over west-central Mexico by Wednesday morning, with maximum sustained winds having decreased to 35 mph.

SUN SENTINEL GRAPHIC As Willa moves through Mexico, it’s still early to predict what will come of a system in the Atlantic Ocean that the National Hurricane Center was monitoring Wednesday morning.