Sun Sentinel Palm Beach Edition
South Florida’s summer forecast: HOT!
A hotter summer may be on the way for South Florida, forcing us to crank up the air conditioners as a 10-year warming trend continues, according to a federal rainy season forecast released Wednesday. The rainy season officially runs from May 15 to Oct. 15, a period when storms routinely sweep over South Florida. The season brings hazards that sound like a list of plagues: Lightning, hail, thunderstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes, waterspouts, flooding, rip currents and, of course, scorching heat.
This year the heat may be .5 to 1 degree hotter than normal, with the increase driven largely by a warmer ocean surface causing higher overnight low temperatures.
Robert Molleda, warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Miami, said the hotter weather of the past few years could be a result of global warming.
“It’s consistent with that,” he said. He said another contributor could be the increased urbanization of South Florida.
Cities raise temperatures through what’s called the urban heat island effect, where asphalt, metal and other materials of roads and buildings absorb more heat from sunlight and lack the moisture and shade of the forested or grassy areas they replaced.
Although South Florida temperatures never approach the hottest days of southern Texas or New Mexico, days in the 90s can bring deadly hazards. The interior of a car on a 90-degree day can take just minutes to reach 120 or 150 degrees, threatening the life of children or pets left inside, according to the weather service.
The other hazards of rainy season are many. The worst period for thunderstorms runs from May to July. Meanwhile, hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, peaks in August and September.
The increased number of storms lead to an increased risk of lightning, tornadoes, flooding and other hazards. For the Florida peninsula south of Lake Okeechobee, the rainy season typically brings 25-35 waterspouts, eight to 10 floods and two deaths and nine injuries from lightning, according to a presentation by the weather service.
Forecasters said they expect a wetter than normal season, possibly with a wetter first half and drier second half. But they said this could easily change, depending on what happens with tropical systems, such as tropical storms and hurricanes. The fivemonth rainy season typically produces about 70 percent of the region’s rain.
At Lake Okeechobee, where discharges of excess water have devastated ocean communities, the water level is currently at a desirably low level, allowing lots of room for absorbing the anticipated rain, said Akin Owosina, hydrology and hydraulics bureau chief for the South Florida Water Management District, which supervises flood control, Everglades protection and water supplies for 16 counties.
But he said that situation could change rapidly, noting that Lake Okeechobee started the 2017 rainy season at an optimal level until Hurricane Irma raised the water level by three feet.