Lake Okeechobee dike likely to hold, Army Corps says

The aging Lake Okeechobee dike is likely to withstand Hurricane Dorian and not be breached, according to the Army Corps of Engineers.

The expected deluge from Dorian could add 3.5 feet of water to the lake over the next month, which would strain the 143-mile earthen dike system and lead to discharges blamed for algae blooms, officials said Friday.

Work is ongoing to shore up the 1930s-era Herbert Hoover Dike, which rings Lake Okeechobee. The federal government classifies the dike as being at a Level 1 risk of failure, the highest danger classification. A breach has long been a nightmare scenario feared by emergency managers.

“In general, the dike is in a better place than the last hurricane,” said Col. Andrew Kelly, the Corps’ Jacksonville commander, referring to Hurricane Irma, which passed over the lake in 2017.

The lake’s level Friday was at 13.6 feet. Once the lake level reaches 21 feet — past the record level of nearly 19 feet— a breach in one or more locations would be likely, according to a 2000 study by the Army Corps.

The most vulnerable part of the dike is the northwestern section near Lakeport, Kelly said.

Gov. Ron DeSantis said he’s been getting updates from the Army Corps with the forecast calling for more than 10 inches of rain to fall in some parts of Florida. “A storm of this magnitude and particularly how slow it is going has the capacity to dump an awful lot of water into the lake,” he said.

Palm Beach County has an evacuation plan to move people living in Belle Glade, Pahokee and South Bay to shelters closer to the coast if a breach is feared. That plan was activated during Hurricane Irma in September 2017, which raised the lake more than 3 feet — from 13 feet, 8 inches to a dangerous 17 feet-plus, in less than a month.

The county has two shelters in

the Glades with second stories that can withstand high winds, said Palm Beach County Commissioner Melissa McKinlay, whose district includes communities near the lake. “We don’t need to evacuate outside of the Glades at this point,” she said. “That’s the position we are taking. Obviously, if the Army Corps alerts us of changing conditions, we’ll have to re-evaluate that.”

Palm Beach County has ordered some evacuations and on Sunday was set to open seven general shelters, a special needs shelter and a pet-friendly shelter.

The Army Corps did not release

water from the lake ahead of the storm because it wouldn’t have made a significant difference in time for Dorian’s arrival, Kelly said.

No emergency spillway is available for a quick release of Lake Okeechobee water.

Once the storm passes, water would be released through the lake’s release valves — the Caloosahatchee on the west and the St. Lucie on the east.

Since 2001, the Army Corps has invested $870 million in projects designed to reduce the risk of catastrophic failure. The latest round of improvements is scheduled to be completed in 2022.

Experts warned in a 2006 report the aging dike’s condition posed “a grave and imminent danger

to the people and the environment of South Florida.” A breach would put 40,000 people who live around the lake at risk, irreversibly damage the Everglades and threaten to contaminate South Florida’s water supply, according to an analysis by engineers.

The Herbert Hoover Dike was built after a 1928 Category 4 storm slammed into West Palm Beach and sent Lake Okeechobee rushing out of its banks. An estimated 2,500 people — mostly from communities ringing the lake — perished in the storm with floodwaters as deep as 20 feet.

The disaster inspired Zora Neale Hurston’s 1937 novel, “Their Eyes Were Watching God.”

ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS/COURTESY The Herbert Hoover Dike was built after a 1928 Category 4 storm slammed into West Palm Beach and sent Lake Okeechobee rushing out of its banks.