What’s next for coronavirus in Florida?

Florida’s coronavirus crisis evokes the uncertainty that comes with the approach of a hurricane. We could escape with little damage, as we usually do, or we could endure a historic disaster that kills a lot of people and disrupts daily life for months.

In the worst-case scenario, experts say, we could see thousands of cases, school closures, employees staying home, travel restrictions and shortages of hospital workers. Or coronavirus could follow the well-trod path of swine flu, SARS and

Zika, which inspired scary predictions and never quite became the historic disasters that many feared.

“A lot of people spend time trying to predict what’s going to happen, and then we go wrong,” said John Lednicky, research professor and virus specialist at the University of Florida’s College of Public Health. “Remember everybody said Zika was going to devastate Florida, and a hurricane came through and everybody was saying ‘now the mosquitoes have a lot of breeding areas and it’s going to be the worst thing that happened in Florida.’ And … nothing. All the predictions were wrong.”

Zike and the other diseases didn’t disappear. They remained serious illnesses. They just joined the suite of diseases that strike one region or another but that have not become global catastrophes.

“I suspect this is going to going to become like the swine flu,” he said. “There was a big fear about. But it really didn’t have the doom and gloom effect that a lot of people predicted. It’s now a virus that affects us yearly. The virus didn’t go extinct. It’s just now one of the normal, seasonal respiratory viruses. And that may happen with this virus.”

That said, Florida is more vulnerable than many states because of its large elderly population. Coronavirus varies in its effect, from mild to devastating, and the ones most vulnerable are people with existing health problems and the elderly.

Gov. Ron DeSantis said Monday he expects to see more cases in Florida, where two cases of coronavirus disease were confirmed by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. He said the state is preparing for a possible shortage of hospital workers, if many are forced to go into isolation because of possible contact with the disease. To prepare for that possibility, he said, Florida is exploring waiving restrictions on out-of-state health workers.

The state of Washington, which has experienced 18 cases and six deaths as of Monday, illustrates what may take place in Florida if things get worse.

Although there have not been wholesale school closures, more than a dozen schools have shut their doors, some for several days, to allow for intensive cleaning after the discovery that a student had tested positive or traveled recently and experienced symptoms. A 44-story Seattle office tower closed for cleaning Monday after a report that an employee had contact with someone who tested positive. King County, which covers the city of Seattle, is buying a motel to house patients in isolation.

More severe measures have been taken in Italy, which has experienced 1,694 confirmed cases and 34 deaths. Several northern Italy towns have been locked down, with authorities barring anyone from entering or leaving. Flights into northern Italy from the United States have been canceled. Milan’s famed La Scala opera house has been closed.

Even if Florida escapes with just a handful of cases, we won’t know we’re in the clear for more than a month, said Bindu Mayi, professor of microbiology at Nova Southeastern University’s Dr. Kiran C. Patel College of Osteopathic Medicine. That’s because the illnesses take 14 days, and possibly longer, to show up. So whatever the ultimate outcome, the concern over a major outbreak and the protective measures imposed to prevent one, are likely to last for a while.

“If it gets worse, which I expect — it’s going to get worse before it gets better — if we see it in the hundreds to thousands,” she said. “We may go to school closures, which would be quite a logistical undertaking. But I imagine we’d have to do that if we’re seeing more fatalities and if we’re seeing more numbers. If the cases do get worse, not by numbers but also by severity, working from home is a possibility.”

Florida has such a good public health system, she said, with officials moving quickly to detect and contain any infections, that it’s unlikely the worst will come to pass.

“The best-case scenario is a few cases and then life goes on as normal,” she said. “The worst is the infection just keeps building in numbers. But because of our public health infrastructure here and how good we are at disseminating information, I would be very surprised if we had the worstcase scenario. That’s not saying we won’t see an increase in numbers, but the worst-case scenario would be something like what’s happening in China. But I honestly don’t see us being there because of our public health infrastructure.”

And much of the outcome, she said, depends on us. The virus spreads through coughing, sneezing and poor personal hygiene. It’s up to us, she said, to wash our hands, cover coughs and sneezes, and avoid touching our own faces and eyes.

“I think we have to create a new normal, and that new normal is proper cough and sneeze etiquette,” she said. “Don’t touch your face with your hands. If you’re sick, please stay home because there are others who are far more vulnerable.”

“Don’t touch your face with your hands. If you’re sick, please stay home because there are others who are far more vulnerable.”

Bindu Mayi,

professor of microbiology at Nova Southeastern University