Model: Virus to peak on April 21

State can expect 242 deaths daily, scientists estimate

Florida’s new coronavirus infections may peak on April 21, about two weeks earlier than the original projections used by the state.

At the projected “peak” of the outbreak, Florida can expect some 242 people might be dying daily, according to a series of revised estimates released on Monday by a group of scientists at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine.

Previously, mathematical models of Florida’s coronavirus outbreak by the university’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation estimated that Florida would experience its worst day of coronavirus infections on May 3.

Like a high tide during a powerful storm, that peak is expected to strain hospital capacity statewide and lead to increased mortality from the virus because of a lack of resources.

But the number crunchers at the University of Washington, whose models are used, in part, to inform decisions about coronavirus response at the White House, have gotten their hands on some new data.

The new data allows them to more accurately take into account things like the effects of widespread social distancing and how spikes in coronavirus numbers actually use scarce hospital resources.

The greater clarity has allowed the group to revise some of its estimates downward, and move the peak of the infection for Florida forward by about two weeks.

The updated model for Florida predicts that the states’ medical resources will be stretched to their fullest on April 21.

On that day, according to the model, some 13,168 hospital beds, out of the states 20,184 beds, will be in use.

All of the state’s intensive care units will be full, and there will be a shortage of 769 ICU beds.

And at its peak, the model predicts that the new coronavirus will create a demand for 2,095 ventilators in the state.

Yesterday, Florida Department of Emergency Management director Jared Moskowitz said the state would have enough ICU beds and ventilators in place to meet peak demand.

The updated model also estimates that some 242 people will die during just 24 hours during the height of pandemic wave.

According to the model, the state can expect a possible total death toll of 6,774 people by June 1, the date at which the institute expects daily deaths from the virus in the state to cease.

It is important to note that the numbers in the model are best guesses, and that death rates and resource use at hospitals may be significantly higher or lower than what the institute predicts.

“As we obtain more data and more precise data, the forecasts we at IHME created have become more accurate,” Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, said in a statement that accompanied the release of the new projections. “And these projections are vital to health planners, policymakers, and anyone else associated with caring for those affected by and infected with the coronavirus.”