Sun Sentinel Palm Beach Edition
A Florida poll shows Joe Biden with a slight lead over President Trump.
But Florida’s still up for grabs in upcoming presidential election
Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden has a slight lead over President Donald Trump with a little more than six months until Election Day.
A Quinnipiac University Poll released this week found 46% of registered voters favoring Biden to 42% for Trump.
Florida is the largest state that could go either way in the presidential election, awarding 29 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. The state consistently produces close statewide elections, with key contests often decided by small margins.
Although Biden has less than 50% in the poll and his advantage over Trump is within the margin of error, there’s a potentially troubling sign for the president. Among voters age 65 and older, Biden leads Trump 52% to 44%. That’s an 8-point advantage for Biden among older citizens — the group most likely to actually turn out and vote.
In 2016, Trump won 49% of the vote statewide to Democrat Hillary Clinton’s 47.8%.
In May 2016, a Quinnipiac Poll found Clinton leading Trump in Florida by 1 percentage point, 43% to 42%. Biden’s lead in the current poll is 4 points.
Among that critical group of voters, age 65 and older, Trump led Clinton by 13 points — 50% to 37% — in May 2016.
Biden became the certain 2020 Democratic nominee on March 17, when he had a slew of primary victories including in Florida, where he won 61.9% of the vote.
Florida Democrats overwhelmingly support him in November,
the poll found. Democrats favor the former vice president 91% to 4%.
Republicans are just as supportive of Trump, favoring him 89% to 7%.
Biden has a slight lead over Trump among no party affiliation/independent voters, 44% to 37%.
Quinnipiac surveyed 1,385 Florida registered voters. Closer to Election Day, pollsters switch to likely voters in an attempt to better focus on people expected to vote.
The survey, conducted
from April 16 to 20 with live callers to landlines and cellphones, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The sample size for smaller groups, such as Democrats, Republicans and independents, is smaller and the margin of error is higher.
Pollster ratings from FiveThirtyEight.com give Quinnipiac a B plus for its data gathering and accuracy.