Poll: Biden leads Trump by 6 points

University survey finds challenger moving ahead in Florida since March

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden has a 6-point lead over President Donald Trump in Florida, a poll of the state’s voters said Friday.

The Florida Atlantic University poll found Biden with 53% to Trump’s 47%.

Besides putting the former vice president and presumptive Democratic nominee above the 50% threshold, it also represents a move up for him and a slight move down for Trump

In contrast to Biden’s 6-point lead in the latest poll, which is outside the margin of error, Trump and Biden were effectively tied in FAU’s previous two polls.

Biden had a 2-point advantage in January and Trump had a 2-point advantage in March, both within the margin of error.

In March, FAU found Trump led Biden 51% to 49%. In January, Biden was ahead 51% to 49%. The earlier polls came before the full effects of the coronavirus began to be seen and felt by the nation. The previous FAU poll was released on March 9.

The Florida contest is critical to both sides. It’s the largest of the half-dozen swing states that could go either way in November and determine which candidate wins.

Florida awards 29 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency, and important statewide elections are almost always exceedingly close.

In 2016, for example, Trump won 49% of the vote statewide to Democrat Hillary Clinton’s 47.8%.

Kevin Wagner, an FAU political scientist and research fellow at the university’s Business and Economics Polling Initiative, said there is a long time until Election Day, so the numbers don’t predict what will happen in November.

But, he said, the closeness shows that Florida is “likely to be once again very, very competitive.”

Issues: The economy was chosen as the top issue by 28% of voters. Another 18% said health care and 12% said immigration.

But for a significant share of the state’s voters, the most important issue isn’t an issue at all — it’s winning.

Among all voters, 20% said defeating Trump was the most important issue (36% of Democrats) and 13% said re-electing Trump was the most important issue (26% of Republicans).

Given the feelings both Democrats and Republicans have about Trump, Wagner said the winning campaign is probably not going to be the one that persuades voters to come its way, rather the one that turns out more of its supporters.

Vice president: Biden has said he plans to select a woman as his running mate. The most controversial female name the pollsters put on the list — unsuccessful 2016 nominee Hillary Clinton — was the pick of 10% of Democrats. Among the more plausible possibilities: U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris of California, 21%; Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, 21%; 2018 Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams, 15%; and U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, 11%. U.S. Rep. Val Demings of Orlando was the choice of 4%.

Fine print: The latest results come from an FAU Business and Economics Polling Initiative survey of 928 Florida registered voters conducted online and through automated calls to people with landline telephones from May 8-12.

It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.