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Breaking down draft options for Marlins
Breaking down Marlins’ options with No. 3 pick
Though Wednesday’s five-round MLB Draft will present challenges for the Miami Marlins, it also brings opportunity. The Marlins have rebuilt their farm system in just a few years, stocking it with talented prospects on the precipice of the majors — talent that is sorely needed for a team that won just 57 games last season. Of Miami’s top 12 prospects, according to MLB.com, four are first-round picks from the last four years. This year’s selection will add a fifth, with Miami owning the No. 3 pick.
Who might be chosen at No. 3? It is, perhaps more than any other professional league, difficult to predict. Factors like signability and slot value play into the decision. Whoever is selected likely won’t see the major leagues for multiple years, and as such, drafting for a present “need” is often rendered pointless. Surprises, however, can never be ruled out.
But the 2020 draft has a widely-regarded top tier of three players. With Arizona State slugger Spencer Torkelson expected to go No. 1 to the Detroit Tigers, that leaves two players Miami will wait for: Texas A&M left-hander Asa Lacy and Vanderbilt do-it-all position player Austin Martin. We broke down both:
Asa Lacy, left-handed pitcher from Texas A&M
It was the 2018 SEC Tournament, Kyle Simonds, an assistant coach at Texas A&M, recently recalled. The Aggies were an 11-seed, coming off an upset win over Vanderbilt the day before, up against third-seeded Georgia. With the rotation stretched, head coach Rob Childress opted for freshman Asa Lacy to start, a talented left-hander who’d spent the bulk of his freshman season out of the bullpen.
“If we had to go to the bullpen in the third, fourth or fifth inning, he would have been OK with that,” Childress said at the time of his thought process. “Asa would not allow that.”
Lacy spun six innings of shutout ball, striking out eight batters in a 3-0 Texas A&M win. He pounded his fastball past
batters and commanded his changeup and breaking ball for strikes. It was just his second career start.
“At that point, I think we all kind of knew as a staff that this guy’s going to be really good,” Simonds said, “he’s probably going to pitch in the big leagues one day.”
Two years later, Lacy now stands to be the Aggies’ highest-drafted prospect ever, a lanky power pitcher who’s drawn more than a few Clayton Kershaw comparisons — however unfair that may be. He still relies primarily on his fastball, which sits at 93-94 miles per hour and touches the high-90s, though his changeup and slider are now both considered plus pitches, too. He started to tap into the latter the summer after his freshman season, playing in the Alaska Baseball League with a hard-headed focus on developing his secondary pitches.
“He is the ultimate power pitcher, so when you start throwing a cut-fastball, it started to develop a little more movement,” Simonds said. “He kind of manipulates
it; he can throw it more like a cutter or he can go back-foot to a righty and turn it into a true slider.”
Lacy leaves A&M with a career 2.07 earned-run average and a stellar 3.29 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Before the 2020 season was cut short, Lacy turned in four starts, allowing just two runs total in 24 innings. He struck out 46 and walked just eight.
“If he’d had a full spring, and kept this up, more people would likely see him as a candidate to go (first overall),” Keith Law, a senior baseball writer for The Athletic wrote. “If there’s a future No. 1 starter in the class, I think it’s him.”
Austin Martin, infielder/ outfielder from Vanderbilt
Austin Martin played seven positions his freshman season — all except pitcher and catcher. Some think he’ll stick at third base, others think center field is a real possibility. But he could play second base. Or even shortstop.
That versatility comes alongside a bat that might be second-to-none in this draft. Martin hit .368 with a .474 on-base percentage in his two-plus years at Vanderbilt, showing the staff
signs of forthcoming power to boot.
“I think he’s very unique. I think even industry-wide it’s hard to put a (comparison) on him,” said Andrew Pate, an assistant coach at Vanderbilt. “I think it’s an elite hitter. Elite. I mean, this guy, his feel for the barrel, it’s off the charts. It’s really high. Then his versatility on the defensive side of the ball, that’s what I think makes it hard to pinpoint who he is. He’s just Austin Martin.”
“We haven’t seen a top college prospect this athletic since George Springer in 2011,” added Keith Law, who ranked Martin No. 1 overall on his draft board. “He’s going to end up at a skill position — center, third, second, maybe shortstop if his arm is back to normal — and hit for average with developing power. That’s the kind of probability with upside you want at the first overall pick.”
Martin nearly pulled the trigger on signing with the Indians in 2017 after being selected in the 37th round. He instead opted to play at Vanderbilt, where he slotted right into the leadoff role. He belted his first career hit for a home run against Duke and never looked back.
Martin led the Commodores in both hits and onbase percentage in 2019, helping lift them to a College World Series title over Michigan. Power, Pate says, will be the difference maker between an above average MLB player and an elite one.
“If we’re looking up at him in five years, we’re going to see a player that is tapped into power,” Pate said. “It’s in his future, and he’s already shown it.
“At 25-26 years old, I think he’s going to be one of the well-rounded hitters in the big leagues that will provide you really good at-bats, hit for a high average and hit for above-average power.”
Other options:
Spencer Torkelson (Arizona State) - Anything is possible. Ruling out Torkelson entirely would be a fools’ errand, and if he fell to the Marlins, it would be difficult to imagine passing on him. He’s a prototypical slugger — a first baseman who’s shown top-tier power but also some swing-andmiss potential. But he hit 54 home runs in 498 collegiate at-bats. That’s why he’s probably not slipping past Detroit.
Nick Gonzales (New Mexico State) - Gonzales led the NCAA in home runs in 2020 before the season was shut down, with 12 in just 16 games, and his versatility in the middle of the infield will likely make him a firstround pick. Still, it likely won’t be enough to vault him over power conference stars.
Emerson Hancock (Georgia)
- Another SEC arm, this one right-handed. Though the Marlins’ system is deep with pitchers, that should never preclude another. Hancock posted a dominant 2019 sophomore campaign — striking out 97 hitters in 90.1 innings, with just a 1.99 ERA — but he struggled in four starts this spring. Still, if Lacy is off the board and the Marlins have their eye on an arm, Hancock could be the guy.
Zac Veen (Spruce Creek, FL)
- Taking a high-school prospect is always a risk, but maybe more this year than ever. Veen’s talent will make him an enticing option, but rolling the dice on just three years of high school ball, and with limited ability to scout in-person, seems to outweigh the reward with more established guys on the board.