Sun Sentinel Palm Beach Edition
Reopening pushes ahead amid ‘worrisome’ surge
Thursday had the most new daily cases since March
With each day this month comes another 1,000-plus cases of the new coronavirus in Florida. On Thursday alone, officials added 1,700 new cases to the tally, the most on any day since March.
Is this a troubling spike, or a result of the state’s phased-in reopening? Or is there another, more reassuring, explanation, such as more robust COVID-19 testing?
While health experts and leaders offer differing opinions and levels of caution about the increase in cases, one thing is clear: The disease continues to spread.
“The message that you’re hearing loud and clear is that the virus is still here,” said Dr. Alina Alonso, Palm Beach County’s health department director, urging social distancing and maskwearing measures. “It has not gone away. It is still infecting many people. There is still community spread … it is not contained in any way, shape or form.”
There’s a significantly greater number of COVID-19 tests each day, compared to the same period a month ago. Officials say that is producing more cases, yet the overall percentage of positive tests has been dropping.
From June 1 through Thursday, the state counted a total of 285,463 tests. And during that period, there have been 12,906 new cases.
But from May 1 through May 11, the state counted a total of 177,588 tests. During that period, there were 7,284 new cases of the new coronavirus.
So there have been 107,000 more swabs in the first 11 days of this month as
compared to the first 11 days of last month.
“If you do 2,000 tests one day, 4,000 tests the next, you’re going to get more positives when you do the 4,000,” Gov. Ron DeSantis told reporters Thursday.
Florida has done 1.3 million tests, and 5.3% have come back positive. Four weeks ago, the positivity rate was 7%.
Mary Jo Trepka, an epidemiologist at Florida International University, said it remains to be seen whether the virus is circulating more in the month since the state lifted the stay-home orders.
“Part of it for sure is more tests being reported, but there may indeed be more transmission going on,” Trepka said. “It is going to be really important to look in coming weeks to see what happens.”
The governor pointed out that the data shows that the additional cases are not resulting in a run on hospital beds. He said between 25% and 35% of beds are consistently available statewide. “The cases are not indicative of any clinical consequence,” DeSantis said. “Our hospitalizations are flat. [Intensive Care Unit] use is half of what it was in April.”
Dr. Jay Wolfson, who researches public health issues at the University of South Florida, said he wasn’t surprised to see the cases climb, given increased testing, more reliable testing, and more interaction in the community.
Still, other health analysts suspect some of the increase in cases can be attributed to the restarting of the state’s economy.
“It is worrisome,” said Barry R. Bloom, public health professor and former dean of the Harvard T.H. Chan School. “Clearly a one-day spike doesn’t mean a whole lot, but a trend does. The worrisome thing about Florida is over the last 30 days, cases are not flattening. They are going up.”
The numbers still don’t reflect the full effect of Memorial Day gatherings and protests, which will likely cause more infections, Bloom said.
Broward County Mayor Dale Holness said he doesn’t want to put businesses back into lockdown, but he is contemplating a pause in the county’s reopening plans.
“We must be cautious in any new expansion of openings,” Holness said. “We can’t continue to see these rises without doing something to mitigate it. It will put our health and economy at risk. We don’t want to go back to where we have to shut the economy down again.”
Summer camps, movie theaters, and bowling alleys are set to reopen in Broward County on Monday. Broward’s casinos and racetracks could begin reopening as early as Friday.
Palm Beach County Mayor Dave Kerner said he still wants to see his county move into Phase 2. But DeSantis has treated South Florida differently than the rest of the state.
Palm Beach County recently sent a letter to DeSantis requesting permission to go to Phase 2 of reopening, which would involve a range of businesses and venues where people congregate.
The major change would allow bars inside restaurants to reopen. Movie theaters, bowling alleys, arcades, concert halls and other entertainment venues could reopen, but only after they submit a public safety plan and receive county approval.
Kerner said he thinks the focus should be on educating residents about social distancing and enforcing public health measure, rather than returning to lockdowns.
“The reality is South Florida needs to be able to exist in this new normal,” he said. “There will be some bumps in the education and compliance efforts.”