Sun Sentinel Palm Beach Edition
Just how sick is South Florida?
The hidden health data the state won’t show you
As new COVID-19 cases in the state hit record highs daily, hospitalizations climb and intensive care beds fill, leaders are becoming increasingly anxious about whether the infection will overtax the local hospital system. But Florida’s Agency for Health Care Administration isn’t showing Floridians all they know about how the virus is playing out in its hospitals.
The Sun Sentinel has obtained COVID-19 hospitalization information for South Florida from Florida International University where researchers from the university’s Robert Stempel College of Public Health & Social Work have launched the Miami-Dade COVID-19 Trend Tracker, a website dedicated to monitoring the long and short term trends of COVID-19 and its impact on Miami-Dade hospitals. The data is significant because, unlike publicly available state data, it focuses solely on COVID-19 patients and it does so in far more detail. The FIU data shows clear and concerning hospitalization trends are emerging in South Florida:
■ South Florida hospitalizations for COVID-19 are now eclipsing the peaks reached in mid-April. Miami-Dade
on Wednesday had 981 people hospitalized with the virus, surpassing an April 17 peak of 787. Broward County had 391 COVID-19 patients in hospitals, nearing its peak of 413 on April 7. Palm Beach County, with 394 people hospitalized with the virus, has far exceeded a peak of 245 cases on April 20.
■ In Broward County, more COVID-19 patients fill hospital beds each day for the last week, but overall people are sicker in Palm Beach County, where hospitalizations, intensive care and ventilator use for those in critical
need have been on the increase since mid-May.
■ Palm Beach County has consistently had the highest percentage of COVID-19 patients in intensive care, accounting for about 33 percent of the county’s hospital patients. In Broward and Miami-Dade those numbers are 28 percent and 23 percent, respectively.
■ All three South Florida counties have reported consistently higher daily hospitalizations from the virus since June 12.
■ Miami-Dade has seen a sharp rise in infected patients on ventilators this week as more patients are in ICU beds.
■ Broward County hospitals have been admitting more patients with the virus than discharging them since June 4.
Florida’s Agency for Health Care Administration posts overall hospitalization numbers on its public website, but does not break out COVID-19 patients or specifics on how many of them are hospitalized, admitted, discharged and in intensive care beds. The Florida Department of Health does not show daily new hospitalizations but rather a cumulative current total that does not illustrate peaks or trends at the county or state level.
The Sun Sentinel has asked for the information to be released through public records requests. In response, the Agency for Health Care Administration (AHCA) said it will review what additional data can be made available to further inform the public.
Researchers at FIU had been tracking Miami-Dade’s COVID-19 hospitalization numbers and compiled them for Broward and Palm Beach counties at the Sun Sentinel’s request.
Along with hospitalizations, data scientists at FIU track positivity rates, the percent of people tested who are positive. These numbers also expose a troubling trend.
Broward’s positivity rate has nearly doubled in the last two weeks, from about five percent to 10 percent,
and Miami Dade has nearly tripled from about 5 percent to 15 percent. Palm Beach has consistently stayed high, at a range of 9 percent to 11 percent, according to data available Wednesday.
“This is exponential growth,” said Zoran Bursac, chair of FIU’s Department of Biostatistics, said of the rising rates in Broward and Miami-Dade counties. “If you look at the long-term trend from March to now, this is the second period of exponential growth. over the last couple of weeks. We are seeing slight spikes in ICU and ventilator use and that’s something to watch.”
Bursac noted that Palm Beach County, with an older population that MiamiDade and Broward, has experienced more coronavirus patients consistently in its ICUs as well as higher mortality from the virus than the other counties. “They will need to be really careful.”
Hospital systems and local leaders say residents need to watch the numbers and do their part to stop the alarming spread.
Broward County Mayor Dale Holness said he wants county residents to get as much health and hospitalization information as possible. “It’s good information for the public to have so they understand the importance of wearing their mask and socially distancing and how they play a role in the process of stopping the spread of the virus. No one wants to be in a situation of getting COVID and going to the hospital and there is no room for them.”
Local mayors say the increase in positive cases in South Florida may be a reflection of businesses such as restaurants not following the safety guidelines and people — particularly those under 55 — congregating without masks. Broward County plans to shut down businesses that don’t comply.
Holness said the younger demographic that now makes up the majority in the positive numbers gives him some hope that Broward’s health system will not get overwhelmed, but that could change. “It takes time from a positive to when someone goes to the hospital. I anticipate an increase if (behavior) this continues.”
Wael Barsoum, former CEO of Cleveland Clinic Florida, said hospitalizations in his Weston location are up this week. “We still need another week or two or three to get a better sense of what the demographics and hospitalization trends are going to show us,” he said.
Barsoum said he is optimistic that the increase in hospitalizations will not result in a proportionate increase in deaths from the virus.
Indeed, deaths in Florida are not rising in lockstep with positive cases. But that may be just a matter of time. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious-disease specialist, told Congress at a hearing Tuesday that in the coming weeks the death toll is likely to rise commensurately along with rising infection rates.