Presidential poll:

Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by 6 points in Florida. But Trump is leading among Floridians 65 and older, 49% to 41%.

Democrat Joe Biden has a 6-point lead over President Donald Trump in a new Florida poll released Thursday, the latest in a series of surveys that show the former vice president ahead in a state Trump won in 2016 and is vital to his for re-election.

The New York Times/Siena College poll shows Biden with 47% to Trump’s 41%. Still, a greater share of Floridians favor Trump’s re-election than elsewhere. Biden had larger leads over Trump in five other Times/ Siena battleground state polls. And Biden’s lead in Florida is within the poll’s margin of error, so the contest could be much closer.

In the national version of the poll released Wednesday, Biden had a 14-point lead over Trump.

The polarizing president is driving people on both sides. Of the people who said they’d vote for Trump, 78% said they were voting for the president. Of the people who said they’d vote for Biden, 61% said they were voting against Trump.

Seniors with Trump

One big positive for Trump, he’s performing well with Florida’s largest voting bloc — seniors — who were central to his 2016 victory. The poll found Trump leading Biden among Floridians 65 and older 49% to 41%, an advantage of 8 percentage points.

That represents an improvement for Trump. A New York Times /Siena College poll in October found the two candidates were essentially tied, with a 1-point advantage for the president. Among all voters in October, Biden had a 2-point lead, which has now increased to 6 points.

Trump also leads by 11 points among voters aged 45 to 64. Biden has significant advantages among younger voters: 18- to 29-year-olds (39 points), 30to 44-year-olds (21 points).

Regional differences

The Democratic strongholds of South Florida are Biden’s best territory. He has support of 60% of voters in Miami-Dade County (a 33-point advantage over Trump) and of 56% in southeast Florida. Biden has support of 54% of voters in the Interstate 4 corridor in Central Florida (20 points over Trump.) Trump does best in rural and northern Florida, where he has support of 53% of voters (18 points over Biden).

Independents for Biden

Independent voters favor Biden 48% to 30%. That’s an 18-point advantage, but it also shows people haven’t decided or are unhappy with their choices. Among independents, 5% said they’d vote for another candidate and 13% said they didn’t know who they’d select. Democrats and Republicans overwhelmingly favor their party’s candidates, with 92% of Democrats supporting Biden and 87% of Republicans supporting Trump. Among Republicans, 6% said they didn’t know who they’d vote for and 1% someone else.

Other differences

Gender: Men favor Trump by 6 points (47% to 41%), women favor Biden by 15 points (52% to 37%).

Race: White voters favor Trump by 16 points (54% to 38%), Black voters favor Biden by 80 points (85% to 5%) and Hispanic voters favor Biden by 23 points (52% to 29%). White voters’ support for Trump is essentially unchanged from October when he was ahead by 17 points. But Black and Hispanic voters have moved toward Biden. In October, Biden’s lead among Black voters was 59 points and among Hispanic voters was 20 points.

Education: Biden has significant leads among voters with college educations. He’s ahead of Trump by 15 points among people with bachelor’s degrees and 26 points among people with graduate degrees. Trump leads by 5 points among people with some college.

People who have graduated from trade or high schools or don’t have high school degrees are essentially tied, with Biden leading by 1 point. There’s been erosion in working-class voters’ support for Trump, whom they favored by 12 points in October.

Sunshine State

The Florida contest is critical to both sides. It’s the largest of the half-dozen swing states that could go either way in November and determine which candidate wins.

Florida is a “toss up,” according to an updated Electoral College analysis from Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. The previous analysis said Florida “leans Republican.”

“To be clear, we remain skeptical of the Democrats’ ability to win Florida. Republicans run circles around Democrats in organizing,” the Center for Politics analysts wrote. “Overall, our suspicion is that Biden’s lead is artificially high right now.”

Florida determines 29 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. In 2016, for example, Trump won 49% of the vote statewide to Democrat Hillary Clinton’s 47.8%.

Other battlegrounds

Besides Florida, the New York Times/Siena College surveys in the five other key battleground states. The six key states will likely determine who wins the presidency. Biden had leads in each: Arizona (7 points), Michigan (11 points), North Carolina (9 points), Pennsylvania (10 points) and Wisconsin (11 points).

The fine print

The new poll findings are in line with what other recent surveys have found in Florida. The RealClear-Politics average of five recent polls has Biden leading by 6 percentage points.

The latest results come from a New York Times/ Siena College survey of 651 Florida registered voters from June 8 to 18. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. The sample size for smaller groups, such as Democrats, Republicans and independents, is smaller and the margin of error is higher. Pollster ratings from FiveThirtyEight.com give the New York Times/Siena College poll an A-plus for data gathering and accuracy, one of only six polls in the country that gets such a high rating.