NY rep’s loss could be boost for Deutch

The likely defeat of U.S. Rep. Eliot Engel in New York’s Democratic primary presents a major opportunity, and risk, for U.S. Rep. Ted Deutch, D-Fla.

Engel is chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, one of the most important committees in Congress — and his occupancy of that job will end when his term expires in January. He was headed to defeat in his bid for nomination to run for a 17th term in New York’s primary on Tuesday.

Foreign affairs is an area that Deutch has concentrated on since he was elected to Congress in 2010. He’s currently chairman of the Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Middle East, North Africa, and International Terrorism.

For Deutch, deciding to make a bid for the committee chairmanship involves complicated calculus. For one thing, there are four committee members with more seniority. (Aside from the chairman, there are 25 members of the Democratic majority.)

But some of those committee members might choose not to seek the chairmanship, preferring to focus their attention on other subject areas.

And, Deutch could choose to run for the job anyway, even if it involves competing with someone with more seniority. He’s done that before. When he became the top Democrat on the Middle East subcommittee, which he currently chairs, it involved competing with — and defeating — a more senior Democrat.

The subcommittee leadership spot involved a vote from the full Foreign Affairs Committee membership. Becoming a full committee chairman requires a vote of the full Democratic caucus — with a lot of influence exercised by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Deutch gets along well with Pelosi. He was her pick as chairman of the Ethics Committee, a job he currently holds.

The 22rd Congressional District is 42% Democratic, 30% no party affiliation/independent and 28% Republican. The partisan voting index from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the district as D plus 6, which means it performed 6 points more Democratic than the nation as a whole in the past two presidential contests.

With a district that’s a relatively

sure bet for re-election, he’s been doing what many members of Congress in safe districts with eyes toward moving up do: giving some of his campaign money to the Democratic Party organization that helps House candidates. On Dec. 18, last year, his committee gave 25 contributions of $1,000 each to other Democrats for their campaigns.

Deutch’s spokesman declined to comment on the congressman’s plans.

Sean Foreman, chairman of the Department of History and Political Science at Barry University, said a Deutch run for committee chairman, and winning the job, is possible.

“It used to be you had to follow the steps of seniority, but now political alliances” can trump strict adherence to seniority.

Barry said members of Congress from Florida have long had a greater interest in committees dealing with foreign policy and military affairs than lawmakers from many other states, owing to the large number of immigrants and the large military presence.

Former U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, RMiami, whose preeminent issue was Cuba, was chairwoman of the Foreign Affairs Committee. Florida has a large Jewish population, and many Jewish residents are interested in U.S.-Israel policy.

“When you look for someone who could step into this role, a representative from Florida fits the profile in many instances,” Foreman said.

Besides work on the foreign affairs and ethics committees, Deutch is a member of the Judiciary Committee.

He’s received massive national attention since the Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School massacre in Parkland, which is in Deutch’s district and just a few miles from his home in West Boca.

The 22nd Congressional District is mostly in Broward, along the coast north of Interstate 595 and central and western parts of the county north of Atlantic Boulevard. He also represents Boca Raton.

The New York Daily News reported Thursday afternoon that Engel was “unlikely to survive his fight to hold onto his district.” Vote-by-mail ballots weren’t yet tallied, but with all precincts reporting inperson votes, Jamaal Bowman led Engel 62% to 34%.