Sun Sentinel Palm Beach Edition
Abortion ruling hurts at-risk GOP
Decision by high court may affect elections in the fall
It did not take Sara Gideon long to leverage Monday’s Supreme Court ruling on abortion in her race against Sen. Susan Collins.
When Collins, R-Maine, cast a decisive vote to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court in 2018, she did so on the premise that he would uphold precedent to preserve abortion rights. But this week, Kavanaugh dissented from a decision that did that, arguing the court should have ruled differently than it did in a nearly identical case four years ago.
“Do you still think Brett Kavanaugh believes Roe v. Wade is settled law, @SenSusanCollins?” Gideon tweeted.
Collins, a rare Republican who supports abortion rights, is facing the most difficult campaign of her more than 20-year Senate career, in large part as a result of her vote to confirm Kavanaugh. The new ruling has taken what may be one of her biggest vulnerabilities and put it squarely at the center of public attention.
She is not alone: The court’s ruling, which struck down a Louisiana law that could have left the state with just a single abortion clinic, reverberated rapidly through Washington and beyond, adding a new focus on one of the most divisive issues in U.S. politics to the critical Senate races that will determine which party controls the chamber in 2021.
“Everyone who voted wrong, we’re coming for you,” tweeted Ilyse Hogue, the president of NARAL Pro-Choice America, naming Collins and four other Republican senators: Cory Gardner of Colorado, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina.
Within hours, NARAL had released a video compilation of Collins’ assertions that Kavanaugh would adhere to precedent.
A spokesman for Collins’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.
Collins, Gardner and Tillis are seen as three of the most vulnerable Republicans in the Senate. And Ernst’s and Graham’s seats, while nowhere near as competitive, have become more so than they were a few months ago as President Donald Trump’s popularity has eroded.
High-profile Democratic lawmakers like Sens. Kamala Harris of California and Kirsten Gillibrand of New York were quick to applaud Monday’s decision as a victory for reproductive rights. But in a sign of what is at stake in November, top Democratic Party officials and Senate candidates like Gideon also moved swiftly to condemn their Republican opponents for both their opposition to reproductive rights and their votes to confirm Kavanaugh.
“It’s a good day for freedom,” top Democratic National Committee members said in a joint statement, before quickly pivoting. “Again, Republicans tried to attack access to safe and legal abortion at the Supreme Court, and again they were shot down.”
“Republican leaders will continue to go after the rights of women and anyone seeking reproductive care to make decisions about their own bodies, their own families, and their own futures,” the DNC statement added. “In fact, two of today’s votes against abortion rights came from Trump’s Supreme Court appointees, Brett Kavanaugh and Neil Gorsuch. Democrats are doing everything in our power to flip the Senate, defeat Donald Trump, and make sure Roe remains the law of the land.”
Nearly all sitting Republican senators voted to confirm Kavanaugh, including those in competitive races this year. Sen. Martha McSally, R-Ariz., who is locked in a tough battle against Mark Kelly, a Democrat, had not been appointed to her Senate seat at the time of the October 2018 vote but indicated around that time that she would have voted in favor.
A spokeswoman for the Republican National Committee said that the party “values the life and health of both the mother and the unborn baby” and sought to use upset over the ruling to drive turnout in the fall.
“It’s unfortunate to see the Supreme Court trample on the prerogatives of states with this decision,” Mandi Merritt said in a statement. “It’s cases like this which serve as a reminder to why President Trump must be reelected so he can appoint more conservative judges who won’t legislate from the bench.”
Several Republican lawmakers expressed displeasure with the ruling, including at least two from Louisiana: Rep. Steve Scalise, the House minority whip, called the decision “horrible,” and Sen. John Kennedy said it was “extremely troubling.”
The Louisiana law at issue requires doctors performing abortions to have admitting privileges at hospitals, and Kennedy was among the Republican lawmakers who argued on Twitter that the court had struck down legislation that “fundamentally protects women.”
Supporters of abortion rights argue, and the Supreme Court’s majority opinion agreed, that requiring abortion providers to have admitting privileges does not make women safer.
Other Republicans, like Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas, voiced their disappointment in Chief Justice John Roberts, who voted with the court’s four-member liberal wing.
“Americans hoping for justice for women and unborn babies were let down again today by John Roberts,” Cotton said in a statement. “The chief justice may believe that he’s protecting the institutional integrity of the court, but in reality his politicized decision-making only undermines it.”
Whit Ayres, a longtime Republican pollster, said abortion was “always a core issue” for voters on both sides of the aisle and that the ruling was unlikely to change many minds.
“This may bring the issue to the fore a little more,” he said. “But it is always going to be a critical issue for people who are strongly pro-life and pro-choice.”
Swing voters, he said, will be weighing the strength of their convictions on abortion against concerns like the pandemic and racial justice.
“There are so many issues that have dominated our discussion almost to the exclusion of everything else,” Ayres said.
Monday’s ruling on abortion, he added, “may raise its significance somewhat, as we’re speaking today in June. The question remains whether it will be that way a month or two or four from now.”
Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority, meaning Democrats must pick up three or four seats — depending who wins the presidency — to give them control of the chamber. They have at least that many targets in mind.