Sun Sentinel Palm Beach Edition
RECORD BREAKER
721,751 votes in South Florida already cast in today’s election
South Florida voters have turned out in droves in advance of the August election, crushing records for people casting their ballots before Election Day.
The vast majority have voted from home, casting mail ballots in advance of Tuesday’s Democratic and Republican primaries and nonpartisan elections to all voters.
The combined totals of mail balloting and early voting are up at least 47% in Broward, 62% in Miami Dade County and 78% in Palm Beach County — the three counties where the coronavirus pandemic has been the most widespread and account for a disproportionately large share of Florida’s deaths.
Statewide totals are up as well, by 32%.
Within the numbers is another, potentially significant trend that could have implications for the presidential election in November: Democratic
voting by mail is up much more than Republican mail voting. The increase is 88% for Democrats statewide and 18% for Republicans.
As a result, they’ve swapped positions. More Democrats than Republicans have voted by mail in 2020; in 2018, Republicans had the advantage.
That could mean heightened Democratic interest in voting in 2020. It could mean that there are more big primaries on the Democratic side this year — such as the races for the party nominations for sheriff and state attorney in Broward.
It could mean that Democrats are turning more to mail voting because of the coronavirus concerns, while Republicans are less concerned about COVID-19. A CNN/SSRS Research Florida poll released July 26 shows that three times as many Democrats than Republicans planned to vote by mail in November. Republicans were more likely to plan to vote in person.
As the coronavirus pandemic continues, voters have turned heavily to mail voting. Mail ballots tallied through Sunday have more than doubled the mail voting totals in August 2018 in Broward, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach counties.
Overall in-person early voting at regional voting centers is down. It was significantly lower than 2018 in Broward and Palm Beach counties, and statewide. It’s higher than 2018 in MiamiDade County, where there’s a hot race for county mayor on the ballot.
The early voting totals show the number of people using that method decreased 38% in Broward, 38% in Palm Beach County and 16% statewide. It increased 21% in Miami-Dade County.
Combined, statewide mail voting and and early voting are up 32%. The South Florida Sun Sentinel analysis of numbers posted Monday morning by the Florida Division of Elections doesn’t predict what will happen when polls close at 7 p.m. on Tuesday.
There’s no way to know how many people will actually show up for in-person voting at neighborhood polling locations on Tuesday, though the moves toward mail voting and away from in-person voting are clear.
The data reflect all mail ballots tallied through Sunday. More ballots will arrive at elections offices on Monday and Tuesday.
The deadline is 7 p.m., which means the total number of mail ballots will increase by the time vote counting is completed.
Sunday was the last day of early voting, and the numbers reported Monday should be essentially complete.
It appears as if Miami-Dade County will surpass its 21.3% voter turnout from August 2018. Based on mail and early votes tallied through Sunday, it was at 20%.
Broward, Palm Beach and the state are farther from hitting 2018 turnouts. Broward was at 18.7% through Sunday (23.5% in 2018), Palm Beach County was at 19.4% on Sunday (25.4% in 2018). Florida was at 19.2% through Sunday (27.5% in 2018).
Whether they fall behind, meet or exceed 2018 turnout depends on how many people are willing to vote in person at their neighborhood polling locations on Tuesday.
Elections supervisors in all three South Florida counties have said they are implementing extensive changes to enhance voter safety considering the COVID-19 pandemic.
And even after all votes are tallied, it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison between 2018 and 2020.
Although there are some extremely competitive races on this year’s ballot — including the Democratic nomination for sheriff in Broward and the countywide election for mayor in Miami-Dade County — the August 2018 primaries were important across the state. Both Democrats and Republicans had highly competitive contests to pick their nominees for governor that year.