Sun Sentinel Palm Beach Edition
Two waves in the Atlantic could become tropical depressions
Odds remain favorable that two disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean will develop into tropical depressions this week.
One was given a 80% of developing into a cyclone and the other a 90% chance, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 8 p.m. forecast on Tuesday.
One of the disturbances is a fast-moving system located over the eastern Caribbean, the hurricane center said. The other tropical wave was about 1,000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde islands, making an approach toward the mid-Atlantic.
The latter is likely to form into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours, according to the public advisory.
Both disturbances are generating large areas of rain and clouds, and are expected to move generally west.
The wave closest to the
Caribbean is expected to travel west across the Caribbean Sea toward Central America, before making a slight turn to the northwest, the hurricane center said.
It is expected to encounter storm-weakening wind shear by the time it reaches the Caribbean on Tuesday or Wednesday, according to the outlook.
“After that time, however, the wave is forecast to move more slowly west-northwestward, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend when the system reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea,” according to the latest public advisory.
The wave closest to Africa is projected to travel slightly northwest toward the Caribbean. It has become better organized since Sunday and is likely to become a tropical depression within a couple days while the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, the hurricane center said.
“It is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms displaced to the west of an elongated surface circulation,” the hurricane center said.
However, it is still early and those forecasts could change.
The next disturbance to become a named storm will be called Laura, and if that occurs before the end of the month, 2020 would tie 2005 for the most tropical storms in history entering September, with a dozen.
After that, the remaining names for 2020 are Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred.
Kyle, the earliest 11th named storm to form in history, breaking the previous record set by Katrina’s Aug. 24 formation in 2005, had faded into a post-tropical cyclone by Sunday morning over the north Atlantic, prompting the National Hurricane Center to stop issuing public advisories for Kyle after 5 a.m. Sunday.
Tropical Depression Josephine, which formed in the mid-Atlantic Ocean on Thursday, dissipated into a remnant low on Sunday afternoon.
In July, there were five tropical storms: Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna and Isaias. Other named storms this year have included Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal and Dolly. Tropical Storm Arthur formed in mid-May, making this the sixth straight year that a named storm formed before the official start of hurricane season on June 1.
Virtually all estimates for this hurricane season predict an above-average number of storms, due to unusually warm ocean temperatures and global climate factors that are likely to reduce the high-altitude winds that can prevent the formation of hurricanes.
The hurricane experts at Colorado State University said in their latest forecast for the 2020 season, issued last week, that they expect 24 named storms, 12 hurricanes and five major hurricanes this year. That’s up from its July 8 forecast, in which they predicted 19 to 20 named storms.
If this latest prediction is accurate, the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season will be the second-busiest on record, behind only 2005, the year that spawned 28 storms in total, including Katrina and Wilma.