Sun Sentinel Palm Beach Edition
Tropical system could head toward South Florida next week
The tropics are heating up with three disturbances moving through the Atlantic — two are likely to strengthen into tropical depressions with one forecast to move in the direction of Florida, potentially affecting South Florida early next week.
“Based on current timing and latest model information, the system could affect South Florida early next week, perhaps by Monday,” said a briefing issued by the National Weather Service’s MiamiSouth Florida forecast office on Wednesday afternoon.
The tropical wave that could potentially affect Florida was located about 850 miles east of the Windward Islands on Wednesday evening, making an approach toward the Caribbean Sea, the National Hurricane Center said. It had a 90% chance of becoming at least a tropical depression sometime within the next 48 hours.
Forecasters said the system was becoming better defined, and associated showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization, according to the hurricane center’s 8 p.m. advisory. Forecasters expect the system to move generally west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph. Forecasts said South Florida residents should continue to monitor its progress.
One of the other two tropical waves, a fast-moving system located over the eastern Caribbean, has its sights set on Mexico or Central America, the hurricane center said. It was expected to move slowly west toward Central America before making a slight turn to the northwest.
Both are forecast to become tropical depressions this week, according to Wednesday’s 8 p.m. hurricane center advisory.
A third wave developed over east Africa late Tuesday into early Wednesday. According to the forecast, some development is possible this week. But conditions are far less conducive for cyclone development by early next week, according to the NHC.
“These are right on schedule,” said Dennis Feltgen, spokesman for the Miamibased National Hurricane Center. “This time of year, in August and into September, you get these tropical waves that roll off the coast of Africa on average about every three or four days.”
However, it is still early and those forecasts could change.
“Some of the models have no chance in the world of ever coming to be,” Feltgen said. “The only thing we want people to focus on is the forecast track, and that’s only going to happen once we get a tropical
cyclone. Right now, there’s absolutely no model consensus at all.”
South Florida can expect a wet week ahead, with scattered thundershowers and some flooding in low-lying areas. The precipitation is not related to the tropical disturbances, said NWS meteorologist Harry Weinman.
The next disturbance to become a named storm will be called Laura, and if that occurs before the end of the month, 2020 would tie 2005 for the most tropical storms in history entering September, with a dozen.
After that, the remaining names for 2020 are Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred.
“Our main message to people is just to remain hurricane ready this year,” Weinman said. “There’s obviously a lot of activity out there.”
In July, there were five tropical storms: Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna and Isaias. Other named storms this year have included Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal and Dolly. Tropical Storm Arthur formed in midMay, making this the sixth straight year that a named storm formed before the official start of hurricane season on June 1.
Virtually all estimates for this hurricane season predict an above-average number of storms, due to unusually warm ocean temperatures and global climate factors that are likely to reduce the highaltitude winds that can prevent the formation of hurricanes.
The hurricane experts at Colorado State University said in their latest forecast for the 2020 season, issued last week, that they expect 24 named storms, 12 hurricanes and five major hurricanes this year. That’s up from its July 8 forecast, in which they predicted 19 to 20 named storms.
If this latest prediction is accurate, the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season will be the second-busiest on record, behind only 2005, the year that spawned 28 storms in total, including Katrina and Wilma.