Twin hurricanes in Gulf? It would be first in history

The tropics are coming together to form a potentially historic moment in the Gulf of Mexico.

Two storm systems are making their way to the Gulf and both are forecast to develop into hurricanes. If they do, it would be the first time in the history of record keeping it’s happened.

Tropical Storm Laura is coming in from the Atlantic to the east and Tropical Depression 14, expected to become Tropical Storm Marco, is coming from the western Caribbean. They are forecast to be virtually side-by-side in the Gulf as Category 1

hurricanes by Monday — if the National Hurricane Center’s Friday afternoon prediction holds.

“If it were to occur, it would be the first time on record,” Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist at Colorado State University said. “It’s going to require a best/worst case scenario for that to occur.”

South Florida is expected to escape the brunt of Laura as the storm brushes the north coast of Cuba and skirts past Key West, the hurricane center said Friday.

But the Gulf coast from Texas to the Panhandle of Florida are watching for a potential hurricane double-whammy next week.

It’s not uncommon for multiple storms to exist at the same time in the tropics. It is highly unusual, however, for them to make landfall on the same stretch of coast at around the same time.

The last time two named storms were in the Gulf of Mexico was June 18, 1959, when Tropical Storm Beulah coexisted with another storm that was not named.

And in 1933, a Category 3 hurricane made landfall near Brownsville, Texas, around the same time a tropical storm was striking near Cedar Key, Florida, on the other side of the Gulf.

But two hurricanes — at the same time and so close together — would be a first.

To be sure, there is still a lot of uncertainty if it will even happen. Confidence in the path and intensity of Tropical Storm Laura is low because of its potential to make landfall in Puerto Rico or Hispaniola, which could weaken or completely break apart the storm, Klotzbach said.

Tropical Depression 14 could also weaken if it makes landfall in Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula.

“There is a lot of uncertainty because we are talking about events happening on Monday or Tuesday,” Klotzbach said. “There’s even more uncertainty than usual given possible land interactions with Laura.”

If they both do form, the Gulf of Mexico is expansive and it’s unlikely that the storms will get close enough together to impact each other.

But it they did, some strange things could happen.

One possibility is a phenomenon known as the Fujiwhara effect. When that happens, the stronger storm steers the weaker storm and the two begin to orbit around each other until they either merge or spin off in different directions.

Or the stronger storm could simply wipe out the weaker one with its wind shear.

In very rare occasions, the two systems combine to form a stronger storm.

Joel Cline, a scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said he doesn’t believe any of those possibilities will happen with the two current storms.

Klotzbach agrees. “It kind of remains to be seen if they will be close enough to cause that to happen,” he said.

“Even if they manage to both get to the Gulf has hurricanes, they may not be super close together.”