Sun Sentinel Palm Beach Edition
Lagoa pick would be aimed at state’s Cuban Americans
TALLAHASSEE — Florida’s Republican political establishment is lining up to support federal appellate court Judge Barbara Lagoa to be President Donald Trump’s nominee to replace the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the U.S. Supreme Court.
But experts questioned whether picking her would help Trump’s chances of winning Florida when Cuban Americans in South Florida, the group most likely to be energized by her selection, are overwhelmingly in his corner already.
Lagoa, 52, who sits on the Atlanta-based 11th Circuit Court of Appeals, was born in Miami to Cuban exiles. Florida Republicans that include U.S. Sens. Rick Scott and Marco Rubio and Gov. Ron DeSantis are touting her legal record and personal background in pressing her case to the White House.
One of the main points in her favor, supporters say, is her Hispanic heritage and the ability to shore up support among Cuban-Americans in South Florida ahead of the general election.
Eduardo Gamarra, a professor of politics and international relations at Florida International University in Miami, said Trump has successfully shored up the wavering support he had in 2016 with Cuban Americans in South Florida. One of his graduate students recently finished a dissertation showing that Cuban Americans have been most influential not under Reagan or Bush but under Trump, “which is a surprising conclusion.”
So the question of whether to solidify that community’s support instead of other groups Trump needs to win, Gamarra said, is a strategic one.
“[Trump] already is running at 55% to 60% support on Cuban Americans, which is about anywhere from 7 to 10 points higher than that he was in 2016,” Gamarra said. “So does he need to go higher than that? … Do they need to really get up to 70% support among Cuban Americans to be able to consolidate victory in Florida?”
Trump polled poorly with middle-class Cubans in 2016 compared with wealthier ones. Gamarra said that picking Lagoa, a former student of his, could be popular in that community.
“I mean, she’s a Hialeah girl,” he said, referring to the heart of the Cuban community in Miami-Dade County. “You can’t get more Cuban American than that.”
George Gonzalez, a political science professor at the University of Miami, said he wouldn’t be so sure that Trump has a lock on the Cuban vote.
“Polls don’t really capture the Cuban American vote,” Gonzalez said, adding that younger Cuban voters had been trending Democratic during the Obama administration. “What do Trump’s internal polls say about this? That may be why he’s making this move.”
Trump has praised Lagoa and federal Judge Amy Coney Barrett, reported to be his other top pick for consideration.
“She’s an extraordinary person. I’ve heard incredible things about her. I don’t know her. She’s Hispanic and highly respected. Miami. Highly respected,” the president said of Lagoa on Saturday.
Trump has also said he would prefer a young nominee who could sit on the high court for decades, and Barret is 48, four years younger than Lagoa.
But Lagoa, who served for more than 10 years on the Florida 3rd District Court of Appeals before DeSantis named her to the Florida Supreme Court in 2019, had a smoother confirmation process after Trump tapped her for the federal appeals court in December.
Lagoa sailed through on an 80-15 vote, in which five Democratic Senators, including vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris, didn’t vote as they were campaigning for the presidential nomination at the time.
Barrett, a devout Catholic, was confirmed by a narrower 54-42 vote in 2017 to the Chicago-based 7th Circuit Court of Appeals after a tense exchange with Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein of California over the role her faith might play in her decisions.
“Judge Lagoa would bring some things to the U.S. Supreme Court that are not currently there,” said Jesse Panuccio, a member of the Judicial Nominating Commission who vetted her application ahead of her appointment to the Florida Supreme Court. “She’s unlike every sitting justice. The formative experiences of her legal career and life did not come from New York and DC.”
Nevertheless, a Lagoa nomination would be sure to spark vehement opposition from liberal groups. Lagoa refused to recuse herself from a lawsuit at the 11th Circuit regarding Florida’s Amendment 4 law requiring felons to pay all fines and fees before their right to vote can be restored. She had previously considered a similar suit against the law when she sat on the Florida Supreme Court.
She eventually joined the 11th Circuit’s ruling upholding the law, to the dismay of prison reform and voting rights advocacy groups.
“Justice Lagoa was a leading voice in the recent 11th Circuit Court decision that fell squarely along partisan lines and silenced hundreds of thousands of voters in Florida, who months earlier had been legally able to vote,” Desmond Meade of Orlando and the executive director of the Florida Rights Coalition that advocated for Amendment 4, told Politico. “That decision demonstrated why we are fighting so hard for people’s lives to be placed over politics, and that should be the attitude of anyone who aspires to serve on the highest court in the land.”
Trump told Fox News on Monday he’ll likely make an announcement regarding his decision by the end of the week.
“Until the president makes a choice, there will be hour-by-hour rumors in DC about different candidates, potential candidates, (who’s) in the lead,” Panuccio said. “They will be chased down, they will change, and eventually the president will make a decision.”