Sun Sentinel Palm Beach Edition
Final push to playoff begins this week vs. Pats
The Miami Dolphins have three games left. And if they want to make the playoffs during Brian Flores’ second season, the blueprint is simple:
They must win out.
The Dolphins (8-5) must beat the New England Patriots at home on Sunday, then the Las Vegas Raiders on the road on Dec. 26, and their AFC East rival Buffalo Bills in the in the regular-season finale on the road Jan. 3 to secure a playoff spot.
And any losses along the way could dramatically hurt their chances.
“Like we’ve said for the last several weeks, if you have to take care of what’s in front of you and focus on that. If you don’t, the rest of it doesn’t matter,” Flores said Wednesday as Miami begin its practice week for New England (6-7).
“Look, we’ve got a big game this week, against a divisional opponent. It’s a good team. And that’s where our focus is.”
The Dolphins could use some help from other teams in the playoff mix:
If the Baltimore Ravens lose at least one game, or the Indianapolis Colts or Cleveland Browns to lose at least two games, the Dolphins’ will clinch a playoff spot with just wins over the Patriots and Raiders.
Those teams’ schedules, however, don’t easily lend to the idea of that happening, though, with the Ravens (Jaguars, Giants, at Bengals) having an easier final three games than the Browns (at Giants, at Jets, Steelers) and Colts (Texas, at Steelers, Jaguars).
Football analytic sites give the Dolphins less than a 50% chance to make the playoffs: 44.4% according to Football Outsiders; 30.9% per ESPN’s Football Power Index; and 25% from FiveThirtyEight.
Perhaps the best scenario for Miami involves Buffalo — which could clinch a playoff and the Bills’ first AFC East title since 1995 on Sunday against the Denver Broncos — resting their starters in the season finale.
Buffalo is a relatively young team but may want to enter the playoffs unscathed from further injury. Or the Bills could prefer to keep their regulars in, with hopes they remain in rhythm for a deep playoff run.
That could also put the Bills in danger of seeing the Dolphins in the playoffs, which a win over Miami would easily handle.
So, it’s simple: If Miami wins its final three games, the Dolphins are in.
And any loss in the final three games — including Sunday at home against the Patriots, who have won at Hard Rock Stadium just twice since 2013 — could dramatically hurt their playoff chances.
Injury update
The Dolphins’ injury situation for their final three games is not ideal, but the team is trending in a positive direction ahead of Sunday’s game.
First, the bad news:
Tight end Mike Gesicki (shoulder) and starting safety Bobby McCain (ankle) did not practice on Wednesday after suffering their injuries during the loss to the Chiefs last Sunday.
But the good news appears encouraging:
Leading receiver DeVante Parker and key return specialist Jakeem Grant, who also lines up as the team’s No. 2 receiver, practiced despite their hamstring injuries.
Running back Matt Breida, who was placed on the NFL’s reserve/ COVID-19 list on Dec. 4, made his practice return and could provide veteran depth to Miami’s backfield.
Outside linebacker Kyle Van Noy (hip) and inside linebacker Elandon Roberts (chest) also returned to practice after they missed the Chiefs game. They were limited.
Starting left tackle Austin Jackson, who left the Chiefs game temporarily in the third quarter due to a knee injury, also practiced. He was a full participant.
Starting left guard Ereck Flowers (ankle) and rookie running back Salvon Ahmed (shoulder) were also present at practice. It appeared Flowers did not have much of a workload, while Ahmed was in a red, non-contact jersey limiting his participation.
So it appears, the Dolphins could have two receivers, at least one running back and two key linebackers back in the fold for the Patriots game.
But …
“I think it’s a little early to say whether a guy is going to be in or out,” Dolphins coach Brian Flores said before Wednesday’s practice.
“I was in the training room this morning and there were a number of guys getting treatment, all with positive attitudes. Obviously, they’re going to do everything they can to get back as quickly as they can.”
The Dolphins were still without running back Myles Gaskin and defensive back Jamal Perry, who remain on the COVID-19 list.
Gaskin, Miami’s leading rusher with 477 yards and two touchdowns, landed on the list last Saturday, the day before the Chiefs game.
Perry, the Dolphins’ backup safety, joined the list on Dec. 9.
If the Dolphins have to play without McCain and Perry, they will depend on veterans Kavon Frazier and Clayton Fejedelem to play backup safety — although Eric Rowe, who covers tight ends, could also be a candidate.
Without Gesicki, the Dolphins will depend on tight ends Adam Shaheen (9 catches, 110 yards, 3 touchdowns) and Durham Smythe (16 catches, 139 yards, 2 touchdowns) to both block and catch passes. Practice squad tight end Chris Myarick is also an option to fill in on special teams for either player.
The Dolphins also listed five other players with injuries, but they were full participants in practice Wednesday. They were quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (ankle), cornerback Xavien Howard (shoulder), defensive end Shaq Lawson (shoulder), guard Solomon Kindley (foot) and safety Kavon Frazier.