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What would it take to land Watson?
Let’s examine every aspect of a potential deal
This is a simple either/or question that gets to the root of what process you’d prefer.
Fixer-upper or move-in-ready? A fixer-upper could create more equity and allow you to build up your asset. But there’s more risk associated because of the unknowns.
Move-in-ready is easier, and you know exactly what you’re buying. But it is usually more expensive.
That’s the genesis of the debate the Miami Dolphins organization will likely hold in the coming weeks as it internally discusses whether it should pursue a trade for Houston quarterback DeShaun Watson or continue to build around second-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
The 25-year-old Watson is already a top-five quarterback in the league — and is locked up contractually for the next five years — so adding him to a team that possessed one of the NFL’s best defenses in 2020 could make the Dolphins an instant contender.
But keeping Tagovailoa, and staying the course with this rebuild, might get Miami there in time if Tagovailoa develops into
one of the league’s top-10 passers.
Instant contender or keep building?
Here’s a breakdown of all the factors that could be associated with this decision:
Timetable
First off, there is no rush.
No trades can become official until the first day of the NFL’s new league year, which is March 17. However, the framework of a deal can be agreed to before then.
But the Texans haven’t even hired a head coach yet, and it’s pretty obvious that Watson would be the main draw for someone wanting that job. So interested candidates would probably want to have a conversation with Watson before the organization decides on a course of action regarding a possible trade.
The no-trade clause in Watson’s contract does complicate things. However, let’s not pretend that a quarterback who isn’t buying in won’t wreck a franchise’s culture so the team would have to eventually move him.
So if Watson’s position that he doesn’t want to remain in Houston is unwavering, the Texans’ hand could be forced. If that’s the case, expect trade talks to heat up during this month’s Senior Bowl, and maybe the NFL combine, which doesn’t have a date yet and may not happen in its usual format this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic..
Money
Building around a quarterback while he’s affordable is a major component of the blueprint off which Dolphins general manager Chris Grier is working.
Assuming Tagovailoa is thrown into any deal because the Texans covet him as Watson’s possible replacement, it is important to examine how much both franchises have already paid and have committed to each quarterback.
Tagovailoa signed a four-year deal worth $30,275,436 million that paid him $19,578,500 in a signing bonus. The team also has a fifth-year option on the deal that will pay him between $25 million and $30 million in 2024. So if a team does trigger Tagovailoa’s fifth-year option he’ll earn just over $11 million a season for the next four seasons.
The Texans signed Watson to a contract extension last offseason that is worth $156 million, guaranteeing him nearly $74 million, and has him signed through 2025. He was paid $27 million in a signing bonus.
Next season’s salary ($10.54 million) is extremely manageable, but the deal balloons to a fully guaranteed $35 million in base salary in 2022, and $20 million in base salary and a $17 million roster bonus due in 2023. Watson will earn $32 million a season in 2024 and 2025, but neither of those salaries is guaranteed.
The bottom line is Watson’s salary will eat up more than 15% of his team’s salary-cap space after this upcoming season, the last of the manageable years without restructuring the deal.
Tagovailoa’s salary is manageable for the next four seasons while Watson’s is the second-largest contract in the NFL, one that only trails Kansas City Chiefs star quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
Competition for services
There’s probably only two young quarterbacks — Mahomes and the Buffalo Bills’ Josh Allen — NFL people might prefer to build around, so let’s assume every team in the market for a quarterback upgrade would be interested because Watson’s young and he finished the 2020 season with career highs in passing yards (4,823), competition percentage (70.2), yards per attempt (8.9), and touchdowns thrown (33). While he did have a 4-12 record, it is safe to assume the Texans were in pass-heavy situations most games. Still, it’s not debatable that Watson is one of the young, marquee names in the NFL and would put Miami in the mix for a heavy diet of nationally televised games.
The New York Jets, who own the No. 2 pick in this year’s draft, and whichever team names Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy, whom Watson asked the Texans to interview for their head coaching job, should also be viewed as contenders for Watson. At this point it is hard to rule out any other team making a coaching change.
Trade compensation
We’ve never had an elite quarterback traded in his prime, so this is uncharted waters. But high-stakes trades have been made involving quarterbacks.
To move up four spots in 2012, which was needed to secure Robert Griffin III, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, Washington gave the then-St. Louis Rams two first-round picks and a second-round selection.
The Chicago Bears sent two first-round picks, a third-round selection and veteran quarterback Kyle Orton to the Denver Broncos to acquire Jay Cutler in 2009. And Cutler wasn’t even an elite passer at the time.
In another big trade, the Texans sent the Dolphins two first-round picks, a 2021 second-round pick and a trio of players for Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil, receiver Kenny Stills, a 2020 fourth-round selection and a 2021 sixthround pick.
So anyone thinking Houston would accept anything less than the equivalent of two firstround picks and something extra for Watson is kidding themselves, even if his trade demand hurts its leverage. It’s possible three first-round picks would be Houston’s goal.
Potential
Tagovailoa and veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick led Miami to a 10-6 record in 2020, but plenty of the Dolphins’ success was a byproduct of their defense, which was a top-five unit in many important statistical categories.
Watson, who ranked second in the NFL with a 112.4 passer rating this past regular season, is already a franchise quarterback, so adding him to a team that possesses a top-ranked defense could turn the Dolphins into an instant title contender if more playmakers on offense get added.
Tagovailoa, whose 87.1 passer rating ranked him the 28th-best quarterback in the NFL in 2020, could become a top-10 passer in a season or two. Last year’s rookie could make a major jump if more playmakers are added, but he must master the speed of the NFL game and will likely have to learn a new offense with Chan Gailey retiring.
But there are no guarantees Tagovailoa takes a drastic step forward or remains durable.
Watson, who also has had durability questions, is already a top-five quarterback in the NFL, especially when we take the older players at the position — the 40-year-old QBs — out of the equation.
Miami should ...
If the Dolphins can lure Watson for anything short of three first-round picks, Miami should definitely pull the trigger on a trade with Houston because elite quarterbacks in their prime don’t hit the market often.
But I’d be hesitant to include a package that features standout cornerback Xavien Howard, Miami’s only Pro Bowl talent, and the No. 3 pick in the 2020 draft because that early selection could be traded for a bounty of picks.