Sun Sentinel Palm Beach Edition
Defending champ Chiefs at top of playoff field
The best weekend of the football calendar is almost here. The NFL divisional round features the top eight teams fighting for a chance to reach the conference championship games, highlighting the best players, coaches and storylines the league has to offer.
Here’s how the remaining teams stack up, with a look at their strengths and weaknesses as they fight for a spot in Super Bowl LV on Feb. 7 in Tampa, Florida:
1. Kansas City Chiefs
Regular-season record: 14-2
Weighted DVOA ranking: No. 7 (No. 3 offense, No. 26 defense)
Point differential: +111
Why they could win it all: Patrick Mahomes. The reigning Super Bowl Most Valuable Player was dominant again this season, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt with 38 touchdown passes and six interceptions. He’s lost just once in five career playoff games and has 13 touchdown passes to just two picks in the postseason.
Why they’re vulnerable: Sloppy run defense. Kansas City ranks 31st in rush defense DVOA, allowing 4.5 yards per carry. The Chiefs’ starting defensive linemen and linebackers — with the exception of star defensive tackle Chris Jones — all grade poorly against the run, according to Pro Football Focus.
X Factor: Travic Kelce. The tight end was named to his third All-Pro team after catching 105 passes for 1,416 yards and 11 touchdowns — all top-five marks in the league.
2. Green Bay Packers
Regular-season record: 13-3 Weighted DVOA ranking: No. 2 (No. 1 offense, No. 15 defense)
Point differential: +140
Why they could win it all: Aaron Rodgers. The presumptive MVP returned to his elite form at age 37, leading the league in completion rate (70.7%), touchdown passes (48) and passer rating (121.5). The one-time Super Bowl champion is one of six players in NFL history with 35 or more touchdown passes in the postseason (40).
Why they’re vulnerable: Offensive line depth. All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari tore his ACL in practice before the regular-season finale, forcing journeyman Billy Turner into the lineup. Right tackle Rick Wagner has also been banged up throughout the season. Green Bay can ill afford another injury to this unit, which won’t be at its best without Bakhtiari protecting Rodgers’ blindside.
X Factor: Davante Adams. A top candidate for Offensive Player of the Year, the All-Pro wide receiver led the league with 18 touchdown catches despite missing two games. He’s PFF’s highest-graded receiver against single-coverage this season and had the most red-zone touchdowns in a single season (14) since Randy Moss’ dominant 2007 campaign.
3. Buffalo Bills
Regular-season record: 13-3 Weighted DVOA ranking: No. 1 (No. 4 offense, No. 11 defense)
Point differential: +126
Why they could win it all: Josh Allen made the leap. After completing less than 60% of his passes in his first two seasons, Allen completed 69.2% this season with 37 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions. He’s one of the league’s best at making plays on the run and has been even better when given time to throw, averaging 8.6 yards per attempt with 26 touchdowns and four interceptions from a clean pocket. Oh, and he added 421 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground.
Why they’re vulnerable: A subpar run defense. The Bills ranked 17th in rushing defense DVOA and allowed a league-high 30.2% of their opponents’ carries to gain first downs. According to PFF, Buffalo ranks 25th in expected points added (EPA) allowed per carry this season and 28th in explosive run rate (10-plus yard gains) allowed at 15%.
X Factor: Stefon Diggs. The former Maryland star led the league with 1,535 receiving yards in his first season with Buffalo after being acquired in a trade with the Minnesota Vikings. He’s given Allen a much-needed No. 1 option, taking the offense to new heights under sought-after coordinator Brian Daboll.
4. New Orleans Saints
Regular-season record: 12-4 Weighted DVOA ranking: No. 4 (No. 9 offense, No. 2 defense)
Point differential: +145
Why they could win it all: Balance. Quarterback Drew Brees isn’t what he used to be at age 41, but he’s good enough to lead a top-10 offense surrounded by star playmakers such as running back Alvin Kamara and wide receiver Michael Thomas. Coupled with a defense that ranks first in interceptions (18), second in completion rate allowed (59.8%) and second in pressure rate (31.2%), New Orleans is going to be tough to beat.
Why they’re vulnerable: Well, they have a 41-year-old quarterback. Brees’ arm strength was the topic of much discussion earlier this season, and then he fractured his ribs and missed four weeks. If he has to play outdoors in the freezing cold at Lambeau Field in the NFC Championship Game, it might not be a pretty sight.
X Factor: Alvin Kamara. The All-Pro running back is the only player in NFL history with at least 3,000 rushing yards and 2,800 receiving yards in his first four seasons. His six-touchdown performance on Christmas Day shows he can take over a game.
5. Baltimore Ravens
Regular-season record: 11-5 Weighted DVOA ranking: No. 6 (No. 7 offense, No. 8 defense)
Point differential: +165
Why they could win it all: Lamar Jackson. The reigning MVP has been nearly unstoppable since his return from a bout with COVID-19, completing 67.7% of his passes with 11 touchdowns and four interceptions while rushing for 566 yards and five touchdowns during the Ravens’ six-game winning streak. He got his first playoff victory in style Sunday, becoming the fourth-youngest quarterback to lead a double-digit comeback in NFL postseason history, according to ESPN.
Why they’re vulnerable: Questions on the offensive line. After losing future Hall of Fame guard Marshal Yanda in the offseason, left tackle Ronnie Stanley suffered a season-ending ankle injury in Week 8. That pushed Orlando Brown
Jr. to left tackle, rookie Tyre Phillips and veteran D.J. Fluker to right tackle and former fourth-round pick Ben Powers to right guard. The Ravens still rank in the top eight in ESPN’s run and pass block win rate metrics (which measures the rate at which linemen sustain their blocks for 2.5 seconds or longer), but allowing five sacks against a Titans team that entered Sunday with the fewest by any playoff team in league history (19) was a troubling sign.
X Factor: Marquise Brown. It wasn’t long ago that “Hollywood” was tweeting about wanting the ball more. Since getting shut out in an overtime loss to the Titans in Week 11, the second-year wide receiver has averaged 6.8 catches and 63.9 yards per game with six touchdowns, including seven catches for 109 yards in a wild-cardround win over Tennessee.
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Regular-season record: 11-5
Weighted DVOA ranking: No. 3 (No. 2 offense, No. 9 defense)
Point differential: +137
Why they could win it all: A loaded offense. Tom Brady has started to find a rhythm in coach Bruce Arians’ field-stretching offense, throwing a league-leading nine deep touchdown passes since Week 12. The Bucs have an embarrassment of riches on offense, with wide receivers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown complemented by tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate and even a rejuvenated Leonard Fournette at running back. Tampa
Bay finished the regular season fifth in expected points added per pass play, according to PFF.
Why they’re vulnerable: Offensive line injuries. Right guard Alex Cappa suffered an ankle fracture in the wild-card win over Washington, and veteran Ted Larsen struggled as his replacement. Now the Bucs will turn to Aaron Stinnie, an undrafted free agent who will be making his first NFL start against a strong Saints defensive line.
X Factor: Antonio Brown. With
Evans still dealing with a knee injury and Godwin battling a case of the drops, Brady might look toward the former Pittsburgh Steelers star’s direction more often. Brown has 22 catches for 315 yards and five touchdowns in his past four games.
7. Los Angeles Rams
Regular-season record: 10-6 Weighted DVOA ranking: No. 8 (No. 20 offense, No. 1 defense)
Point differential: +76
Why they could win it all: A dominant defense. Coordinator Brandon Staley is a hot coaching candidate because of what he’s done with this unit in his first season. The Rams have been dominant against both the run and pass thanks to gamewrecker Aaron Donald and shutdown corner Jalen Ramsey, but it’s what Staley has done with the entire group that has people talking.
He’s helped turn defensive backs Darious Williams and John Johnson III into stars. The Rams ended the regular season as the highest-graded coverage unit in the league, according to PFF, and allowed a league-best -0.13 EPA per pass play.
Why they’re vulnerable: Quarterback concerns. John Wolford started the wild-card win over Seattle before being knocked out with a neck injury, forcing Jared Goff to play just weeks after having surgery to repair a broken thumb on his throwing hand. Coach Sean McVay is one of the league’s most innovative offensive minds, but only he can do so much with a quarterback that’s struggling to grip the ball. Rookie running back Cam Akers has to be nothing short of Derrick Henry-esque for the Rams to have a shot at beating the Packers.
X Factor: Cam Akers. The secondround pick out of Florida State had a relatively quiet regular season before exploding for 176 total yards from scrimmage against the Seahawks, the third-highest total for a rookie in playoff history. With two-time All-Pro Andrew Whitworth back at left tackle, the Rams’ running game could be dangerous.
8. Cleveland Browns
Regular-season record: 11-5
Weighted DVOA ranking: No. 12 (No. 6 offense, No. 25 defense)
Point differential: -11
Why they could win it all: A talented offense. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt form one of the strongest running back tandems in the league, and that’s before you consider the offensive line paving the way. The unit ranks first in pass and run blocking grade, according to PFF, and is second in pass block win rate and 13th in run block win rate. Baker Mayfield has thrown 14 touchdown passes to just one interception since Week 7, including three scores in an upset of the Steelers on Sunday night.
Why they’re vulnerable: A leaky and banged-up defense. Outside of star pass rusher Myles Garrett, the defense doesn’t have much talent. Pro Bowl cornerback Denzel Ward is on the reserve/COVID-19 list, and defensive end Olivier Vernon is out for the season with an Achilles injury. The Browns relied on Karl Joseph, Sheldrick Redwine and Andrew Sendejo at safety against Pittsburgh as Ronnie Harrison Jr. gets back up to speed, and linebacker B.J. Goodson hurt his shoulder after missing two games. The Browns ranked 25th in defensive DVOA during the regular season, the worst among the remaining playoff teams.
X Factor: Jarvis Landry. With Odell Beckham Jr. out for the season, it’s been up to Landry to be the No. 1 receiver. He has 461 yards and four touchdowns in the past six games, including 92 yards and a score in the win over Pittsburgh. If the Browns’ running game can’t lead the way, Landry is Cleveland’s best chance to move the chains.