Gators face must-win, led by top SEC rusher

GAINESVILLE — Florida’s visit to Missouri is more than the SEC finale. It begins coach Dan Mullen’s last stand.

A Gators’ win would secure a bowl bid. A loss would continue a stunning free fall and further jeopardize Mullen’s job security as his fourth season at Florida comes unwound.

The Gators have not finished with just two SEC victories since Galen Hall’s 1986 team or 2-6 overall since the league expanded to eight games in 1992.

A victory might do little to make Mullen’s case for another year, but a loss might seal the deal and leave athletic director Scott Stricklin no option but to make a change.

Where: Memorial Stadium at Faurot Field

When: 4 p.m. TV: SEC Network

Radio: ESPN FM 98.1/AM 850 WRUF, Sirius/XM 974 (App)/Ch. 384

Weather: 60 degrees, 0% rain chance

Favorite: Florida by 8.5 points

Online: orlandosentinel.com/ gators; @osgators on Twitter.

Quick slant: Since Missouri joined the SEC in 2012, Florida is 5-4 against the Tigers, including 2-2 in Columbia. The Gators have outscored Missouri 64-23 the past two meetings.

Coaches: Mullen, fourth season, 34-14 (103-60 overall); Eliah Drinkwitz, second season, 10-10 (22-11 overall)

About Florida (4-5- 2-5 SEC): The Gators hope Emory Jones can build on a record-setting performance in what could become a shootout in Columbia. Jones is unlikely to duplicate his 550 total yards and 7 total touchdowns against Samford. But Missouri’s secondary is banged up and expected to without Chris Shearin, Ish Burdine and Shawn Robinson. Limiting turnovers is key for Jones, who had 2 at South Carolina, giving him 10 interceptions and a lost fumble.

Backup Anthony Richardson (concussion, knee) is 100% healthy and should factor into the game plan. Defense, though, will likely determine Florida’s fate. The unit allowed more than 450 yards during losses as road favorites at LSU and South Carolina and yielded 530 to Samford of the FCS. Freshman cornerback Jason Marshall Jr.’s steady improvement and sophomore safety Rashad Torrence II’s generally solid play are among the few positives. About Missouri (5-5, 2-4): With questions at quarterback, the Tigers will lean even more heavily on 5-foot-8, 194-pound senior Tyler Badie — the first player in school history with 1,000 rushing and receiving career yards. Starter Connor Bazelak (soft-tissue injury) is probable, but Brady Cook finished the South Carolina win. Bazelak is talented but mistake prone. His 10 interceptions are tied with Jones for second most in the SEC beyond Kentucky’s Will Levis. Besides dealing with a banged-up secondary, the Tigers allow a league-high 249.6 rushing yards per game. One advantage: Missouri’s plus-4 turnover margin is a net-12 better than Florida’s minus-8.

3 things to watch

1. Florida run D. The Gators’ hopes hinge on the ability to stop Badie, who has 1,576 yards from scrimmage and 16 touchdowns and faces a defense struggling to stop the run. 2. Dameon Pierce. The Gators’ senior needs to touch the football more against the SEC’s worst run defense. Pierce averages 6.6 yards on 68 carries, has 18 receptions and 13 total touchdowns. He produced 126 yards and 3 scores on 10 touches against Samford. 3. Weather. A favorable forecast at kickoff, and only 7 mph winds, is one obstacle Mullen’s Gators won’t face during a must-win game. November in Columbia can be challenging for Floridians.