Sun Sentinel Palm Beach Edition
Tropical Storm Bonnie could develop in next day
Two other systems brewing, but one could fizzle out
Three storm systems are brewing in the Atlantic, one of which is likely to become a tropical storm as it moves toward the eastern edge of the Caribbean Sea, forecasters said.
One of the systems, heading in the general direction of South Florida, could hit wind shear and dissipate, according to AccuWeather senior meteorologist Paul Walker.
“It appears this feature is going to have a small chance for development, and once it gets farther north and into the Caribbean, vertical wind shear, which is not good for it as far as development, is expected to increase,” he said. “It’ll probably lose organization.”
If a tropical storm forms from the system known as Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, it would be called Bonnie. It is expected to move over the southern Caribbean or near Venezuela’s northern coast in the next couple of days, according to the National Hurricane Center.
As of 8 p.m. Tuesday, the system was about 10 miles east of Trinidad, moving west at a fast clip of 25 mph. Its maximum-sustained winds were at 40 mph, with tropical-storm-force winds extending out up to 60 miles.
A wind gust of 74 mph was clocked in Grenada during a severe storm, the hurricane center said in its 8 p.m. update. Other tropical-storm force wind gusts were reported in parts of the southern Windward Islands and Trinidad and Tobago.
Tropical storm warnings are in effect in Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, Bonaire, Aruba, Curacao, and islands outside of Venezuela, meaning tropical-storm conditions could hit the area in the next 36 hours. A tropical storm watch was in effect for coastal Venezuela and the northeastern coast of Colombia.
An Air Force Hurricane Hunter airplane showed there’s no well-defined center of circulation yet, but the system is expected to become a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. Forecasters said the system will be traveling through low wind shear and high moisture for the next couple of days. However, its fast speed and possible interaction with land could slow development.
It is possible that its maximum sustained winds could reach up to 75 mph next week, according to the NHC, which would put it at hurricane strength near northern Central America. If that happens, it would be short-lived as wind speeds are expected to drop sharply thereafter.
It is expected to bring between 4 and 6 inches to the northeastern coast of Venezuela, Grenada and Trinidad and Tobago late Tuesday into Wednesday, the hurricane center said. The islands in the far eastern Caribbean from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia are expected to see 1 to 3 inches of rain while St. Vincent, the Grenadines and Barbados will get 3 to 4 inches.
The NHC is also watching a second system, this one located in the north-central Gulf of Mexico.
This low pressure system is producing rain and thunderstorms. Some slow development is possible this week, perhaps into a tropical storm, as it moves west-southwest toward the coasts of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico.
It has been given it a 40% chance of developing in the next five days and a 40% chance of developing in the next two days.
“This system probably moves inland in the next 24 to 36 hours,” Walker said. “It has a pretty short window as far as developing, if it does develop.
“But the big thing with this system down there in the Gulf is it’s going to be bringing heavy rain to portions of Texas, Louisiana and up into Oklahoma and Arkansas.”
Meanwhile, the tropical disturbance Walker suspects could hit wind shear and dissipate could develop as it moves west-northwest over Atlantic this week. As of Tuesday, it odds of developing remained low, the NHC said.
However, Walker said there’s another tropical wave behind that one.
Walker said the main development area, the area of the Atlantic off Africa’s west coast, has been busy recently.
“You don’t look for the storms from the Cabo Verde Islands [off Africa’s west coast] and the main development region until later in the season,” he said. “That’s when they typically get going, mid-August on. We’re certainly seeing the tropical waves coming across.
“At this time of season we’re looking more for something forming in the Caribbean and closer to the Windward Islands and closer to the Gulf of Mexico, closer to home type of development.”
Still, Walker said conditions, for now, generally work against systems heading toward South Florida.
“I think it continues to be a case where these things continue to plow westward to the southern portion of the main development region [in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico] and toward the south Caribbean and South American coast, at least for a while here,” he said.
Walker said AccuWeather’s hurricane season outlook still seems on target even though the season has only had one named storm, Tropical Storm Alex.
AccuWeather predicted 16-20 named storms this season, including six to eight hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes, meaning Category 3 (111 mph winds) or higher.
“Our team is feeling comfortable with the numbers we have,” he said. “We figure to be right on track. You don’t typically look for a whole lot of activity this early in the season. We’ve had the one storm, maybe we’ll get a second one here. But it’s nothing to get worried about as far as our numbers. We look to be an above-average season coming up here.”
Tropical Storm Alex, the Atlantic’s first named storm this year, developed on June 5 and dissipated over the Atlantic Ocean about 48 hours later.
Colorado State University’s hurricane season outlook, released in early June, forecasted 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes.
The next named storm to form after Bonnie would be called Colin.