Sun Sentinel Palm Beach Edition
If you think heat and hurricanes are bad, wait for wars over water
Afghanistan and Iran came dangerously close to war a few months ago, but it had nothing to do with political ideologies or ancient rivalries. It had to do with a river and how much water each country is allowed to draw from it.
The waters of the Helmand River are shared by both countries, and there was even an agreement drawn up in 1973 enshrining how much water from this river each country gets. While it’s never been officially ratified, both countries had it figured out — that is until late May.
Droughts and subsequent dams built in Afghanistan have decreased the flow of water into the region, causing shortages and agricultural issues, especially on the Iranian side. This created tensions that boiled over into both sides briefly shooting at each other, and while at least three were killed, cooler heads eventually prevailed.
In Somalia, while sitting in a refugee camp just outside of Mogadishu, Nurta Hassan Ebow told The Intercept, “We had to leave because of the drought and the conflict.” The conflict she’s referring to is the ongoing fight between what are passing as government forces and the group al-Shabab.
She is one of many people who have been displaced by drought, historic flooding and the conflict — a struggle for resources that are becoming more and more scarce. This has put many parts of Somalia at the edge of famine and, according to Mohamed Abdi, the Norwegian Refugee Council’s country director in Somalia, has driven more than a million people from their homes.
As climate change progresses, more of these types of scenarios will play out. Floods and droughts will lead to lands becoming uninhabitable, triggering mass migrations of people, much like we’re seeing in the Horn of Africa. In other cases, we’ll see countries getting ready to fight not for oil or territory but for control over water or arable land. These are the conflicts of the future.
The European Union is seeing this on the horizon. It feels climate change worsens conflict risks in fragile areas as destructive weather harms crop yields, exacerbating food insecurity. In the Sahel region of Africa, just south of the Sahara, migrations risk unleashing decades of armed conflict and displacement, according to the UN.
The problem isn’t limited to developing or fragile areas of the world. The people who get displaced from the Sahel or Somalia or Bangladesh all need to go somewhere, and they go to countries that seemingly have the means: Europe, China, the U.S. and other places that might be less affected or simply are perceived as safer.
The stress mass migrations puts on receiving country systems is huge and creates a whole new set of problems. Those who stay behind either suffer or fight over what little is left.
Ahmadou Aly Mbaye and Landry Signé, both fellows at the Bookings Institute in Washington, D.C., underscore this. In their economic study of the Sahel, they found that poverty, instability and communal violence are already on the rise because of poor economic performance and deteriorating climate conditions. For populations dependent on natural resources for their livelihood, climate change reinforces long-existing rivalries as groups fight over what resources are left.
It’s those fights that have the EU worried — spillover effects from climate-driven conflicts. In a draft paper published a few weeks ago EU leadership described these spillover effects: “increased demand for aid, the disruption of supply chains or with people fleeing from uninhabitable areas or severe adverse conditions at home, with the potential of internal displacement and increased irregular migration.”
Essentially, that is what is happening in both east and west Africa and to some degree along the U.S. southern border. Conflict itself is also a catalyst, not just a result. Had the skirmish between Afghanistan and Iran turned more serious, it would have launched a destabilizing regional war that could have drawn in others. Remember, it wouldn’t have been over ancient rivalries or a simmering issue but access to water — the only real water source serving that part of the world.
Climate change isn’t just a hot summer in Europe or forest fires in Canada. It’s the destruction of arable land and fights over key resources for life: water and land to grow food. The West has the capacity to absorb many internal climate issues, but Somalia, Niger, Bangladesh and other developing countries don’t, and the inevitable conflicts and migrations will affect us all.