Tuesday’s election a warning sign for Republicans

A tide of anti-Trump suburban votes gave Democrats victories in all of Tuesday’s big off-year races from Virginia to Washington State and sent a warning signal for 2018 to the Republican majority in the House of Representatives.

In the headline contest for governor of Virginia, the big winners were a mild-mannered former military pediatrician, Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam; his politically ambitious sponsor, outgoing Gov. Terry McAuliffe; and a spate of underdog Democrats who unexpectedly captured more than a dozen GOP legislative seats.

But the election’s principal long-term impact may be its effect on its two biggest losers, President Donald Trump and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.

In Virginia, a massive turnout of anti-Trump suburbanites was responsible for Northam’s unexpected 9-point margin, sending Republicans around the country a signal that they too could face political consequences next year from the controversies and divisiveness that have given Trump the lowest first year job approval of any recent chief executive.

And the extent of the president’s repudiation in Virginia was underscored by the fact that, in addition to losing all three statewide races, increased Democratic turnout may have unexpectedly cost the GOP its control of the House of Delegates. A handful of razor-thin contests will determine the outcome, where Republicans entered the election with a 2-to-1 majority, built in part on gerrymandered districts.

“I do believe this is a referendum on his administration,” said Republican Rep. Scott Taylor, who represents a swing Virginia district. He blamed “some of the very divisive rhetoric” for “a really high Democratic turnout in Virginia.” In perhaps a sign of what is to come, two more Republican House members announced Tuesday they won’t seek re-election in 2018.

It’s true Virginia GOP gubernatorial candidate Ed Gillespie never invited Trump to campaign for him. But he ran a highly negative, Trump-style media campaign that falsely accused his rival of favoring sanctuary cities and unleashing sexual predators upon Virginia’s women. And the president made thousands of recorded robo-calls to spur turnout for Gillespie in conservative areas of the state.

Typically, no sooner had Gillespie lost, and Trump sought to absolve himself of any responsibility. “Ed Gillespie worked hard but did not embrace me or what I stand for,” Trump tweeted from South Korea less than two hours after the polls closed.

But while Virginia gave Democrats the night’s principal emotional boost, similar voting patterns emerged elsewhere, including the expected election of Phil Murphy in New Jersey’s race for governor.

Democrats won a crucial Washington race that gave them control of the state Senate and scored massive majorities in New Jersey’s legislature; captured three GOP legislative seats in Georgia and New Hampshire; ousted Republican executives in two big New York suburban counties, Westchester and Nassau; and won mayor’s races from Charlotte, N.C., to Manchester, N. H., though Republican as expected held an open Utah congressional seat.

And in a possible fallout from Trump’s unsuccessful, yearlong assault on Obamacare, voters in Maine overturned the Republican governor’s rejection of Medicaid expansion, while Virginians reopened the issue there by saying in exit polls their top issue was health care and electing at least 15 new Democratic legislators.

Northam’s victory could also have an impact within the Democratic Party, which just days earlier saw another outbreak of infighting stemming from last year’s bitter nominating battle between Sanders and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

The victory by the low-key moderate, who acknowledged he voted twice for President George W. Bush before seeking office as a Democrat, bolsters the party’s center at a time that Sanders, who pointedly refused to endorse Northam after backing a more liberal challenger, has been trying to pull it to the left. Democratic operatives said that, despite the Vermont independent’s recusal, many of his supporters joined in casting anti-Trump votes.

The result may also provide some fuel for a potential 2020 presidential bid by McAuliffe, a longtime associate of the Clintons who is one of some two dozen Democrats looking at challenging Trump, who narrowly won in 2016 despite polling 3 million fewer popular votes than Hillary Clinton.

To be sure, one off-year election does not totally change the political landscape. Republicans still control the White House, Congress and most state houses.

But the full House and most governorships will be contested next year. And the size of Northam’s victory—plus the fact his anti-Trump Democratic tide was replicated elsewhere— may remind Republicans in swing districts and states there are strict limits to Trumpism’s appeal.