Republicans near goal of overturning Roe v. Wade

Reaching it could backfire

WASHINGTON—Republicans are closer than ever to achieving a U.S. Supreme Court majority to overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade abortionruling, but getting there carries a hidden risk for the party.

A nominee who appears ready to cast the decisive vote against Roe could rally the majority of Americans who back legal abortion to turn out for Democrats in the November election, where Republicans are trying to keep control of the House and Senate.

“Now they’re the dog that caught the car,” said Joshua Wilson, a political scientist at the University of Denver and author of the 2016 book “The New States of Abortion Politics.” “Here’s the opportunity to do the thing that anti-abortion advocates have wanted to do for decades. And it’s really risky because their base really wants this but the majority of Americans don’t. So this could really mobilize Democratic voters.”

President Donald Trump said Friday he’ll announce his nominee to replace retiring Justice Anthony Kennedy on July 9, and he’s narrowed the search to about five finalists, including two women.

For three decades, Republicans have successfully used the abortion issue to mobilize the religious right, whose support proved critical in Trump’s 2016 election. The president—who in 2016 promised to pick justices who would overturn Roe—has a historic opportunity to alter the court’s ideological balance with a more conservative nominee. But Trump may keep in mind where broader public opinion lies, ahead of an election where a surge of voter enthusiasm among women is endangering his party’s grip on Congress.

Gallup Poll

Views on abortion have been steady over the last four decades. Americans have mixed views but few want it to be outlawed. A May 2018 Gallup poll found that 18 percent want abortion to be illegal in all circumstances, while 50 percent want it to be legal in some circumstances and 29 percent say it should be legal in all circumstances.

A poll released Friday by the nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation tackled the question of Roe more pointedly in the context of the Supreme Court battle. Just 29 percent of Americans said they want to see Roe overturned, while 67 percent said they would not, including 81 percent of Democrats, 73 percent of independents and 43 percent of Republicans.

The president told reporters Friday that when he interviews potential nominees he won’t ask about Roe. “They are generally conservative,” he said. “I’m not going to ask them that question, by the way.”

White House legislative director Marc Short and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican, said they hope to confirm a new justice in time for the Supreme Court’s next session, which begins on the first Monday of October.