Virginia Democrat may offer clue to party’s chances

In its drive to regain the U.S. House, the national Democratic Party has taken a major page from the playbook Virginia Democrats used for their 2017 successes: women candidates.

Of the 15 House of Delegates seats Virginia Democrats gained last year, women won 11. So it’s unsurprising that, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, 36 of the Democratic nominees for the 69 most competitive House districts next month are female.

Virginia Democrats have nominated women for all four of the state’s competitive Republican House seats. And the contest that best reflects the national race is in the suburban and rural 7th District, from Richmond’s suburbs to Washington’s exurbs. It pits a prominent GOP Tea Partyer, Rep. David Brat, against Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA operations officer.

Brat, 54, an economics professor, was elected in 2014 by upsetting then Majority Leader Eric Cantor. A prominent member of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, he was re-elected in 2016 by 15 points while Donald Trump carried the district by 6.

Spanberger, 39, is one of the many female candidates with national security backgrounds the Democrats recruited to benefit from anti-Trump attitudes among women voters.

In their only scheduled debate Monday night, the two displayed sharp differences in both style and substance that mirror the national campaign. Though polls show Donald Trump’s presidency a major 2018 factor, neither mentioned him by name, though Spanberger criticized “the president” and Brat praised “the White House” and “the administration.”

Spanberger stressed the need to lower prescription drug and health care costs, charging Brat was “absolutely hypocritical” in citing fiscal reasons for opposing spending bills for apprenticeship programs, hurricane relief and expanded local broadband coverage while backing a tax cut adding $1.9 trillion to the national debt.

Brat used the favored GOP national tactic of linking his opponent to House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi. He cited the former speaker 25 times and provoking audience laughter by repeatedly declaring, “If you vote for Abigail Spanberger, the result will be Nancy Pelosi liberal policies across the board on every issue.”

“I would remind you,” said Spanberger, “you are running against me … and certainly not against Nancy Pelosi.”

A Monmouth University poll last month showed the race tied. In a sense, its competitive nature reflects political changes in Virginia. Once more rural and solidly Republican, the district now includes suburban areas where anti-Trump sentiment has buoyed Democratic hopes.

And Virginia reflects the changing south. Once solidly Democratic, the Old Dominion turned Republican after the mid20th century civil rights revolution, backing 10 straight GOP presidential candidates from 1968 through 2004.

In the three elections since, an influx of northerners, expanded suburbanization and increased black voting pushed it back into the Democratic column, and it now has a Democratic governor and two Democratic senators.

But its House delegation, in part reflecting apportionment by the GOP-controlled General Assembly, has eight Republicans and three Democrats. That seems likely to change on Nov. 6.

The likeliest Democratic pickup is in northern Virginia’s 10th District where several polls show state Sen. Jennifer Wexton leading two-term GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock in a district Hillary Clinton carried by 10 points.

A longer shot is the Norfolk area’s 2nd District where Democrat Elaine Luria, a retired Navy commander turned businesswoman, is trying to unseat Rep. Scott Taylor. The Cook Report rates it a tossup though two recent polls showed Taylor ahead despite a scandal over his attempt to get another candidate on the ballot to split the opposition vote.

The fourth district is the open Republican 5th District in mostly rural southcentral Virginia, including Charlottesville. Democrat Leslie Cockburn, a freelance writer, is running against Republican Denver Riggleman, a maverick Republican who is former Air Force intelligence officer turned whiskey distiller.

The results of these four races will signal a lot about the results nationally on November 6.