Beto for president? Here are his pluses and minuses

Even before a tide of Republican votes doomed his spectacular but ultimately unsuccessful senatorial candidacy, Beto O’Rourke sought to rule out what many of his fervent supporters saw as the logical next step, win or lose.

“I will not be a candidate for president in 2020,” the El Paso congressman told MSNBC. “That’s I think as definitive as those sentences get.”

The words of a tired candidate at the end of a long race won’t stamp out specu- lation that, in a massive field with no logical front-runner, O’Rourke has the charisma the Democrats will need to defeat President Donald Trump.

The Democrats “don’t have anyone of his caliber on the national stage,” said Jeff Roe, chief strategist for victorious Texas GOP Sen. Ted Cruz. “I pray for the soul of anyone who has to run against him in Iowa.”

O’Rourke compares favorably in age (46) and experience (12 years in elective office) to the four other post-World War II Democrats who returned their party to presidential power—John F. Kennedy, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama.

Here’s a more serious look at his pluses and minuses: Pluses:

■ Charisma. In his yearlong campaign, O’Rourke attracted the fervently cheering crowds that greeted the Barack Obamas and Donald Trumps. That quality seems lacking in the current field, though it’s very early and one or more could catch on.

■ Name ID. Thanks to the massive national publicity for his Senate race and the lifelong nickname Cruz sought to denigrate, Robert Francis O’Rourke—aka Beto—has a big advantage over lesser known rivals.

■ Fundraising ability. Raising an unprecedented $70 million for his Senate race means O’Rourke has one of the country’s best fundraising lists.

■ Freshness plus experience. It’s good that he’s new to the national stage, but his six years on the El Paso City Council and six in Congress compare favorably with Kennedy (14 years), Carter (8), Clinton (14) and Obama (12). Besides, most recent presidential winners had less experience than their rivals.

■ Superb retail political skills. They’re crucial in the first two contests in Iowa and New Hampshire. After visiting all 254 Texas counties, Iowa’s 99 should be a breeze.

■ Communications skills. He showed himself in the 2018 campaign to be an excellent communicator. Texas, with its diverse population and 20 media markets, is great preparation for a national race

■ Doesn’t hold office. History shows running for president is a lot easier when unconstrained by the demands of public office. Jimmy Carter showed that. So did Donald Trump. Minuses:

■ Limited national political experience. Running for president is very hard, and no House member has won the presidency since James Garfield without also holding higher office. Staff’s experience limited; many came from his congressional staff, though others worked in 2016 Clinton or Sanders campaigns.

■ He’d have trouble winning Texas’ 38 electoral votes. But Trump lost New York, and Al Gore lost Tennessee in 2000, though he lost the election too.

■ Questionable 2018 tactics. Some critics say he could have won by running as more of a centrist than a liberal. But his success stemmed more form persona than issues.

■ His debate skills are still a work in progress. In his 2018 confrontations against Cruz, he sometimes seemed unsure how to deal with aggressive attacks. Debates are always one way in which a large field is winnowed.

■ Toughness. While his campaign showed him resilient, it’s unclear he has the toughness that will be crucial for any Democrat, since Trump knows no bounds in political combat. Soon after accusing Cruz in a debate of reverting to the “Lyin’ Ted” moniker Trump gave him, O’Rourke apologized, saying, “I took a step too far.” That’s not the way to run against Trump.

■ Lingering questions about whether he sought to leave the scene of the 1998 accident where he was charged with driving while intoxicated. Such issues are always re-litigated in a national race. Just ask Bill Clinton.

■ Exhaustion. O’Rourke’s comments barring a 2020 race reflects the fact he just finished an exhausting campaign. Citing his three children aged 11, 10 and 7, he said, “we’re devoted and committed to being a family again.” A presidential campaign would make that difficult.

■ Lost his only statewide race. So did Abraham Lincoln and George H.W. Bush (twice).

“We’ll see you out there, down the road,” O’Rourke promised in ending his Senate campaign. And in a weekend email to supporters, he said, “I want to be part of the best way forward for this country—whatever way I can help in whatever form that takes.”

Beto could become a major player in the most wide open Democratic presidential race in a quarter century.