Looking for favor?
Amber Guyger is more likely to draw white, conservative jury if trial in Botham Jean’s death is moved outside Dallas
DALLAS—If Amber Guyger’s attorneys get their wish to move the fired Dallas police officer’s murder trial to another county, her jury figures to be whiter and more conservative, according to an analysis by The Dallas Morning News.
Defense attorneys filed a motion last week saying Guyger can’t get a fair trial in Dallas because of all the publicity after she shot 26-year-old Botham Jean in his apartment.
But the populations of the six counties that her attorneys suggest as alternatives are less diverse and more suburban and rural.
That shift could affect the outcome of the trial and make a jury less likely to convict Guyger, said Patrick Bayer, a Duke economics professor who has studied links between the racial makeup of juries and trial outcomes. He found that less diversity in the jury room does a disservice to justice.
“If you move a trial from a more racially and ethnically diverse community, you’re going to increase the chance for acquittal, which is why they are making the motion in the first place,” said Bayer. “The legal argument, of course, is pretrial publicity.”
Defense attorneys Robert Rogers, Toby Shook and Michael Mowla did not respond to a request for comment, and a spokeswoman for the district attorney’s office declined to comment.
A gag order signed by state District Judge Tammy Kemp, who will decide whether to move the trial, prevents defense attorneys and prosecutors from commenting publicly on the case.
It’s unclear when Kemp will rule on the motion to change the trial’s venue. She could choose to hold a hearing or make a decision without hearing arguments.
Just as the white majority substantially increases in Collin, Ellis, Fannin, Grayson, Kaufman and Rockwall counties, residents there are also more conservative. While Dallas County swung blue in the last three presidential elections, the six counties where the defense wants to move the case voted Republican.
Bayer said race, political affiliation, age and sometimes gender all play a role in how jurors vote.
The population of Dallas County was 29% white in 2017, according to the state’s most recent estimates available. In Collin County, that number jumps to 58%—and the numbers are higher in the other five counties. Grayson and Fannin counties have the least diverse populations with white majorities of 76% and 78 percent, respectively.
Polling shows Republicans have a more favorable view of police officers than independents or Democrats— although no group was anti-cop.
Guyger, 30, was off duty but in her police uniform Sept. 6 when she shot Jean, a 26-year-old accountant, as he watched football in his apartment. She said she mistook his apartment for hers and believed he was a burglar.
Guyger is white, and Jean was a black man from St. Lucia, who had one day hoped to return to his country to run for prime minister.
Jean’s death was covered not only locally but also by statewide, national and international news media. Guyger’s attorneys say she can’t get a fair trial in Dallas because the media coverage was inflammatory and prejudicial. Prosecutors want Kemp to hold a hearing and try to seat a jury in Dallas County before she makes a decision.
The trial is slated for Sept. 23, with jury selection beginning on the anniversary of Jean’s death.