Arkansas, others states show gains in economic survey

OMAHA, Neb. — Business leaders in nine Midwest and Plains states indicated in a monthly survey that the region’s economy continued to improve going into the new year, with confidence in the economy over the next six months soaring, according to 2021’s final report released Monday.

The overall index for December of the Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions grew to 64.6 from November’s 60.2. Any score above 50 on the survey’s indexes suggests growth, while a score below 50 suggests recession.

December’s survey results indicate growth in manufacturing in the region and that the region’s economic growth will remain solid, said Creighton University economist Ernie Goss, who oversees the monthly survey.

“In terms of supply chain disruptions and bottlenecks for the first half of 2022, approximately one-third of supply managers expect delays to worsen, with only 1 in 6 anticipating improvements,” Goss said.

About half of supply managers expect the omicron variant of COVID-19 to slow deliveries, while more than 42% anticipate little or no impact on supply deliveries, he said.

The survey’s business confidence index, which looks ahead six months, rocketed from a weak 46.2 in November to 64.0 in December.

The monthly survey covers Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.

Here are the state-by-state results for December:

Arkansas: The overall index for Arkansas expanded to 66.1 from 54.6 in November. Components of the survey were: new orders at 66.8, production or sales at 52.9, delivery lead time at 81.6, inventories at 72.3, and employment at 57.0. Since the beginning of the pandemic, Arkansas durable goods manufacturing experienced much stronger growth than nondurable goods producers in the state. Average hourly wages advanced by 3.5% during this same period of time, according to non-seasonally adjusted data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Iowa: The overall index rose to 60.6 from 59.4 in November. Components of the overall December index were: new orders at 66.9, production, or sales, at 53.1, delivery lead time at 74.2, employment at 57.6, and inventories at 51.2. Since the beginning of the pandemic, Iowa durable goods manufacturing experienced much stronger growth than nondurable goods producers in the state. Average hourly wages advanced by only 0.8% during this same period, according to non-seasonally adjusted data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Kansas: The overall index climbed to 61.7 from 61.2 in November. Components were: new orders at 66.8, production or sales at 52.9, delivery lead time at 81.6, employment at 57.0, and inventories at 50.0. Since the beginning of the pandemic, Kansas durable goods manufacturing experienced much stronger growth than nondurable goods producers in the state. Average hourly wages advanced by 4.4% during this same period, according to non-seasonally adjusted data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Minnesota: The overall index advanced to 70.2 from November’s 65.1. Components of the overall December index were: new orders at 68.3, production or sales at 56.3, delivery lead time at 89.5, inventories at 70.5, and employment at 66.3. Since the beginning of the pandemic, nondurable goods manufacturing experienced much stronger growth than durable goods producers in the state. Average hourly wages advanced by 6.4% during this same period, according to non-seasonally adjusted data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Missouri: The overall index dipped to 65.3 from 66.3 in November. Components were: new orders at 60.3, production or sales at 54.9, delivery lead time at 86.3, inventories at 62.2, and employment at 62.5. Since the beginning of the pandemic, Missouri has yet to regain jobs lost in durable goods manufacturing and nondurable goods production. Average hourly wages advanced by 6.1% during this same period, according to non-seasonally adjusted data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Nebraska: Nebraska’s overall index fell to 64.1 from 67.0 in November. Components of the overall December index were: new orders at 53.9, production or sales at 67.7, delivery lead time at 83.8, inventories at 55.8, and employment at 59.6. Since the beginning of the pandemic, Nebraska durable goods and nondurable goods manufacturers have experienced slow growth with total manufacturing jobs above pre-pandemic levels. Average hourly wages advanced by 10.2% during this same period, according to non-seasonally adjusted data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

North Dakota: The overall index rose above growth neutral to 59.4 from November’s regional low of 49.6. Components of the overall index for December were: new orders at 66.5, production or sales at 52.0, delivery lead time at 79.5, employment at 54.6, and inventories at 44.6. Since the beginning of the pandemic, North Dakota nondurable goods manufacturing experienced much stronger growth than durable goods producers in the state. Average hourly wages advanced by 8.7% during this same period, according to non-seasonally adjusted data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Oklahoma: The overall index expanded above growth neutral in December to a regional high of 70.3 from 62.4 in November. Components of the overall December index were: new orders at 68.3, production or sales at 56.3, delivery lead time at 89.5, inventories at 70.4, and employment at 66.3. Since the beginning of the pandemic, Oklahoma nondurable goods manufacturing experienced much stronger growth than durable goods producers in the state. Average hourly wages advanced by 9.8% during this same period, according to non-seasonally adjusted data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.