Ex-rebel frontrunner in Colombian vote, could shake U.S. ties
BOGOTA, Colombia — Fabian Espinel last year helped organize roadblocks where young people protested against police violence and government plans to increase taxes on lower income Colombians. Now, as his country heads into its presidential election Sunday, he walks the streets of the capital’s working-class sectors handing out flyers and painting murals in support of Gustavo Petro, the front-runner candidate who could become Colombia’s first leftist head of state.
“Young people in this country are stuck. We hope Petro can change that.” said Espinel, who lost his job as an event planner during the pandemic and received no compensation from his company. “We need an economic model that is different than the one that has been failing us for years.”
Colombians will pick from six candidates in a ballot being held amid a generalized feeling the country is heading in the wrong direction. The latest opinion polls suggest Petro, a former rebel, could get 40% of the votes, with a 15-point lead over his closest rival. But the senator needs 50% to avoid a runoff election in June against the second-place finisher.
Should Petro win outright Sunday or the possible runoff contest next month, the leftist anti-establishment candidate would usher in a new era of presidential politics in Colombia. The country has always been governed by conservatives or moderates while the left was sidelined due to its perceived association with the nation’s armed conflict.
“The left has been quite marginalized due to the weight of the armed conflict in Colombia, to the very recent existence of a guerrilla that claimed to be leftist like the FARC,” Yann Basset, a political analyst and professor at the Universidad del Rosario, said referring to the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia. “The change occurs with the peace agreement, which lifts this mortgage for the left a little and promotes a different agenda with social issues suspended by the conflict.”
His main rival through most of the campaign has been Federico Gutierrez, a former mayor of Medellin who is backed by most of Colombia’s traditional parties and is running on a pro-business, economic growth platform.
But populist real estate tycoon Rodolfo Hernández has been rising fast in polls and could challenge for the second spot in Sunday’s vote. He has few connections to political parties and says he will reduce wasteful government spending and offer rewards for Colombians who denounce corrupt officials.
Petro promises to make significant adjustments to the economy as well as change how Colombia fights drug cartels and other armed groups. His agenda largely centers on fighting inequalities that have affected the South American nation’s people for decades and became worse during the COVID-19 pandemic.