Could Hillary Clinton turn Arizona blue in 2016 race?
Could Hillary Clinton turn traditionally red Arizona blue? The state leans toward the GOP candidates, but Clinton is holding her own against potential 2016 Republican opponents here, according to a new poll from a Democratic firm.
President Bill Clinton, in 1996, became the first Democrat to carry Arizona since President Harry Truman in 1948.
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whose campaign already has a staffer in Arizona, likely would face an uphill climb in the state, particularly after Republicans settle on a candidate and coalesce around a nominee. Arizona Republicans maintain a statewide voter-registration advantage over Democrats.
According to the new poll by Raleigh, N.C.-based Public Policy Polling, there is no runaway GOP frontrunner in Arizona yet. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker comes in first with 16 percent. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida are tied at 14 percent. U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson are tied with 11 percent.
The rest of the GOP names polled in Arizona: U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, 9 percent; New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, 5 percent; and former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, 2 percent.
“Even though Walker’s in first place by a negligible amount this poll might be most encouraging for Rubio,” Tom Jensen, PPP’s director, wrote in his analysis of the survey results. “His 61 percent favorability rating is the best in the field by a large margin. Huckabee at 52 percent has the next best rating.”
Clinton, who so far faces a formal challenge only from U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, is the undisputed Democratic frontrunner in Arizona, the poll found. And she is competitive in the state with most of the GOP prospects.
“Clinton is within 3 points in matchups with 7 out of 9 of the Republicans we tested,” Jensen wrote.
Christie would lead Clinton by 7 percentage points and Paul would lead her by 5 percentage points, the poll found. But Clinton trails Walker and Cruz by only 1 percentage point. She trails Rubio by 2 percentage points and Huckabee by 3 percentage points. She would tie Bush and Carson, and leads Perry by 3 percentage points.
The automated PPP poll of 600 Arizona voters was conducted May 1-3 via telephone and the Internet. Eighty percent of the interviews were done by phone. The margin of error for the entire sample is plus or minus 4 percentage points. The margin of error for the GOP sample is plus or minus 5.7 percentage points. In other developments:
U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., is nixing any hopes that “dreamer” friendly language will wind up in the new defense authorization bill.
U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., got an amendment added to the U.S. House version of the legislation that would urge the Defense secretary to consider letting participants in President Barack Obama’s Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, or DACA, program serve in the military.
McCain, the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee chairman, told The Arizona Republic he opposes including such a provision in the must-pass measure.
“That issue needs to be addressed by the Congress as a whole, not by the defense bill,” McCain said. “That is an issue, along with many others, that need full-fledged introduction and debate and amendments on the floor of both the House and the Senate. This is a defense authorization bill and we need to focus our attention on defending the nation in very, very difficult and challenging times.”
McCain also defended the rights of the organizers of the provocative May 3 Mohammed cartoon contest in Garland, Texas. Two gunmen from Arizona were killed trying to attack the event.
“Obviously, it’s not an enterprise that I would have engaged in myself, but Americans have the right to express their views,” McCain said. “If we’re beginning to say that if it offends somebody, that they can’t engage in certain activities, then we’re on a slippery slope.” Dan Nowicki is The Republic’s national political reporter. Follow him on Twitter at @dannowicki and on his official Facebook page.