BEST SCREENPLAY (ADAPTED)
Isabelle Huppert, “Elle” Ruth Negga, “Loving” Natalie Portman, “Jackie” Emma Stone, “La La Land” Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins” Will win: Stone. Should win: Stone. Wild card: Huppert. The buzz: Stone seems to have escaped the “La La Land” backlash. She’s beloved in Hollywood and she sang, danced, cried and laughed. Huppert has gotten a lot of buzz; she was terrific in two very different movies (make sure you see “Things to Come” as well). This is a great category, probably the strongest of the bunch. But it’s going to be a “La La Land” night.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight” Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water” Lucas Hedges, “Manchester by the Sea” Dev Patel, “Lion” Viola Davis, “Fences” Naomie Harris, “Moonlight” Nicole Kidman, “Lion” Octavia Spencer, “Hidden Figures” Michelle Williams, “Manchester by the Sea” Will win: Davis. Should win: Davis. Wild card: Williams. This is a lock. Davis, who won a Tony for the role on Broadway (as did Washington for his role), was flat-out great, exceptionally powerful. As for Williams, this is one of those situations where in any other year we’d be talking about her as the sure winner. But not this year. “Arrival” “Fences” “Hidden Figures” “Lion” “Moonlight” Will win: “Moonlight.” Should win: “Moonlight” Wild cards: “Hidden Figures,” “Arrival.”
The buzz: “Moonlight” originally was going to be entered in the original-screenplay category (it’s based on a play that was never produced), but the Academy ruled it would be entered here. “Arrival” has won some industry acclaim, but anything besides “Moonlight” would be a huge upset.
BEST SCREENPLAY (ORIGINAL)
“Hell or High Water” “La La Land” “The Lobster” “Manchester by the Sea” “20th Century Women” Will win: “Manchester by the Sea” Should win: “The Lobster” Wild Card: “La La Land” The buzz: The tightest category of the bunch. The thinking is that this is a good place to reward “Manchester.” But if “La La Land” gathers steam during the broadcast, it’ll win this, too. What a great category. “The Lobster” was the most-original script, but all of them are terrific. It’s temping to say there are no losers here, but there will be, and I’m guessing it’s every nominee but “Manchester.”