Oscars

“Arrival” “Fences” “Hacksaw Ridge” “Hell or High Water” “Hidden Figures” “La La Land” “Lion” “Manchester by the Sea” “Moonlight” Will win: “La La Land” Should win: “La La Land” Wild card: “Hidden Figures” or “Moonlight.”

The buzz: “La La Land” suffered a predictable backlash, but I’m not having it. There’s not a bad movie in the bunch, and there are several great ones. But “La La Land” was magic. “Moonlight” could sneak in and “Hidden Figures” is getting some discussion, but I’m going with “La La Land.”

BEST DIRECTOR

Mel Gibson, “Hacksaw Ridge” Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight” Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea” Denis Villeneuve, “Arrival” Damien Chazelle, “La La Land” Will win: Chazelle. Wild card: Jenkins. Should win: Chazelle. The buzz: See backlash, above. Though it would be no disappointment, certainly, if Jenkins won — he did a brilliant job with “Moonlight.” For that matter, Villeneuve outdid himself with “Arrival.” But Chazelle made magic.

BEST ACTOR

Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge” Ryan Gosling, “La La Land” Denzel Washington, “Fences” Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea” Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic” Will win: Affleck. Should win: Affleck. Wild card: Washington. The buzz: No one disputes the brilliance of Affleck’s portrayal of a man living in misery. But stories of a previous accusation of sexual assault resurfaced (he disputes the charge), giving some voters pause. If anyone else is going to win, it’s going to be Washington, because, well, he’s Washington, and he’s great. Plus he directed the important movie he starred in. But Affleck’s still the best bet.

BEST ACTRESS

Michael Shannon, “Nocturnal Animals” Will win: Ali. Should win: Ali. Wild card: Patel. The buzz: Among the surest of things going. Ali commanded the screen as a soulful drug dealer, wiser and kinder than his occupation would suggest. Patel is getting a lot of notice, which is strange to me — I think his performance, while perfectly fine, was the least of the five. Ali will win and deserves to, but I’d love to see a clip of just Shannon doing his thing in “Nocturnal Animals.”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

DAVID BORNFRIEND, A24 Juan (Mahershala Ali) navigates haunting waters in “Moonlight.”

DALE ROBINETTE/LIONSGATE Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone star in “La La Land.”

CLAIRE FOLGER Joe (Kyle Chandler, rear) comforts Lee (Casey Affleck) in “Manchester by the Sea.”