Coyotes’ uneven growth shows unpredictability of a rebuild

The result will be the same, another season that fails to culminate in a playoff berth, but how the Coyotes reached that fate is unlike their journey a year ago.

An upstart capitalizing on the speed and skill of its rookies, the group sat in a playoff position at the All-Star break before a second-half slide pulled them out of contention. This season, the setbacks started much earlier with the Coyotes plummeting to the bottom of the league during the first month and not improving much since.

That the team’s growth pattern has been uneven points to the unpredictable nature of a rebuild. It’s a reality reflected across the league, since a number of other clubs in a similar process are improving at different rates.

“Every team has their own path, just like every player has their own path,” said Kevin Weekes, an analyst for NHL Network. “In saying that, it’s also important to say that we are in a world of competitive sports. So we have to also factor in the fact that hey, we do track wins and losses and those are really big. Those are tangible, so you kind of have to strike a balance there.”

After the Coyotes triggered their rebuild at the 2015 trade deadline, they jostled for draft positioning with the likes of the Sabres, Oilers and Maple Leafs and all three teams slotted near the Coyotes again in 2016 as all organizations remained in transition.

But the pecking order appears certain to shift this year.

While the Coyotes are stuck second-to-last in the overall NHL standings, the Sabres, Oilers and Maple Leafs entered action Tuesday in contention for the playoffs. Edmonton had the best outlook, holding the No. 2 seed in the Pacific Division, while Toronto was one point shy of a wildcard berth in the Eastern Conference. Despite being only five points behind that slot, the Sabres have the toughest climb with five teams to leapfrog.

And the significance behind each ranking varies for each organization as they all embarked on this reset at different times.

Although the Oilers haven’t made the playoffs since 2006, they didn’t receive a No. 1 pick until 2010 – the first of three in a row. Since then, the team has had a carousel of coaches and general managers with the latest regime featuring coach Todd McLellan and GM Peter Chiarelli taking over in 2015.

Buffalo is in the midst of a five-season playoff drought, but the exodus of veterans began in 2013 before Tim Murray became GM in 2014 and continued the roster makeover. And Toronto’s shakeup – like Arizona’s – came more recently with a new brain trust, coach Mike Babcock and GM Lou Lamoriello, resuming control in 2015 after Brendan Shanahan was named president a year prior.

The Maple Leafs’ improvement from finishing last in the NHL in 2016 to vying for a playoff spot is impressive, and the arrival of No. 1 overall pick and Scottsdale-raised Auston Matthews is a major reason.

“That definitely helps accelerate things,” Weekes said. “It can put you a little ahead of schedule having those generational players.”

Edmonton has one, too, Connor McDavid, and Buffalo has no doubt been boosted ever since it took Jack Eichel second overall in 2015. The Coyotes have added two top-10 picks in the past two years, but neither is currently in the NHL. Dylan Strome was returned to junior after a seven-game look at the start of the season and Clayton Keller is still developing at Boston University.

“They do have a nice stable of prospects but at some point in time, it’s not just about the prospects of the rebuild,” Weekes said. “It’s the pieces you have to surround them.”

How the Coyotes choose to fill out their roster for 2017-18 could go a long way in determining the next step of their rebuild.

Arizona is poised to have plenty of flexibility; 16 players currently on the roster are under contract for next season for a cap hit of approximately $45.4 million, according to capfriendly.com – about $8.6 million from the salary-cap floor and around $27.6 million from the ceiling if both parameters remain flat.

It’s possible more youth will be integrated if Strome and/or Keller prove ready for the NHL, but the support staff also appears key – as other rebuilding teams have shown with Oilers veteran Patrick Maroon complementing McDavid, the Leafs’ James van Riemsdyk on the brink of 20 goals and offseason acquisition Kyle Okposo second on the Sabres in points.

And even though each organization’s situation tends to be unique, keeping pace with and eventually surpassing the competition is ultimately what wraps this process.

“You have to start getting traction,” Weekes said.

“Every team has their own path, just like every player has their own path.” KEVIN WEEKES ANALYST FOR NHL NETWORK, ON REBUILDING IN THE NHL