Cats know Vegas hot streak could pay off

NCAA seeding on line at Pac-12 Tournament

LAS VEGAS — For one of the Pac-12’s Big Three, there’s a shortcut to the Phoenix Final Four available via Las Vegas this week.

Arizona, UCLA and Oregon all enter the Pac-12 Tournament with comparable overall résumés, only a handful of losses each and an argument on why they deserve the conference’s best NCAA Tournament seed and geographical placement.

They’re so close, in fact, that CBS bracketologist Jerry Palm gave all three of them No. 2 seeds entering this week. So close that they’re ranked 3 (UCLA), 5 (Oregon) and 7 (Arizona) in the latest AP Top 25 poll. And so close that they’re 8 (Oregon), 9 (Arizona) and 15 (UCLA) in the NCAA’s RPI.

That’s why the Pac-12 Tournament could make a huge difference in where they go next week. Conference tournament games are normally viewed by the NCAA selection committee as any regular-season games, but Arizona, UCLA and Oregon are likely to have at least one matchup between them, giving somebody a chance to gain an edge.

In other words, if one of them wins the Pac-12 Tournament, they are likely to get a No. 1 or No. 2 seed and stay in the NCAA’s West Region.

That means the difference between facing Gonzaga (still possibly the West’s No. 1 seed if it wins the WCC Tournament) in San Jose, Calif., for the right to reach the Final Four instead of potentially having to play Kansas in Kansas City (Midwest) or Villanova in New York City (East).

“I think the (Pac-12) tournament becomes a huge decider,” says Pac-12 Networks analyst Kevin O’Neill, the former UA and USC head coach. “I think the winner gets the No. 1 seed in the West.”

Of course, thinking that way makes the kind of assumptions sitting coaches typically don’t want to make. So UA’s Sean Miller won’t. “The more we win, the better for us, so let’s look at it that way,” Miller said, when asked if he’s aiming to stay in the West. “But part of when you talk about with what region we’re in, you’re presuming we’re gonna get past the first and second round, and it’s hard to get to the Sweet 16.”

While that’s actually a pretty safe assumption — the Wildcats have made the Sweet 16 in four of five NCAA Tournaments under Miller — he has a point: The regional assignment only applies to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.

The first weekend is all about fourteam “pods,” each of which are led by a 1-4 seed that usually gets to play close to home. The Wildcats are expected to lead a pod to first-weekend games in Salt Lake City next week, especially since the West’s other first-weekend location, Sacramento, is expected to have UCLA and Oregon leading its pods.

It’s also true that staying in the West is not always a good thing for Arizona. While the UA reached the 1988 and 1994 Final Fours out of the West Region, it won the 1997 championship out of the Southeast and reached the 2001 title game out of the Midwest.

And in the Miller era,the UA has reached the West Regional final three times — and lost each time.

“I know the history of the tournament at Arizona: Teams in the past have gone to different locations and made it to the Final Four,” Miller said. “It’s so much more about playing your best and hopefully having a matchup that is good for you. All teams have certain styles that they’re going to be more comfortable against and there’s maybe teams you’re not as comfortable against.”

So far, though, Arizona isn’t off to a good start in that category. The Wildcats will have to open in Thursday’s Pac-12 quarterfinals against the winner of a first-round game Wednesday between 10th-seeded Washington State and seventh-seeded Colorado — and the Buffs are on a tear, having won eight of their final 11 games after a disastrous start to conference play.

Arizona beat Colorado 82-73 on Jan. 7 at McKale Center, the third of seven games CU lost to open the Pac-12 season, but didn’t play them again because of the Pac-12’s unbalanced schedule.