Potholes ahead for No. 1 seeds
Plenty of places to stumble along way
Congratulations to Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina and Gonzaga for earning No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.
But will that mighty four become the Final Four here in Glendale? Don’t count on it. Since seeding began in 1979, only once has the Final Four been composed of all No. 1 seeds, in 2008. Not only that, but only four other times did as many as three top seeds make it.
That means that 33 of the 38 Final Fours since 1979 have had no more than two No. 1 seeds. Three times – 1980, 2006 and 2011 – no top seed made it.
History says that some or all of these shiny seeds are going to find some bumps along the road to Glendale.
Let’s see where those might show up:
North Carolina appears to have the tools to get back to the national title game, but it is fair to question whether it can string together enough consecutive strong performances. Watch out for a possible regional semifinal matchup with Butler. Disregard that the Bulldogs are entering on a two-game losing streak – they are 14-4 against teams in the bracket. If the Tar Heels survive that, waiting for them in the final could be UCLA, which has offensive numbers unmatched by any Division I team. The Bruins score 1.202 points per possession and have an effective field-goal percentage – a shooting accuracy measure that adjusts for the value of 3-point field goals – of 60.4. They also have a team assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.90. All of those marks are the best in the nation. UCLA has the best player in the region in guard Lonzo Ball, and his surrounding talent can match that of North Carolina or No. 2-seed Kentucky.