RUNNING RAGGED?
Cardinals must be careful to not work David Johnson too hard
When it sounds almost too good to be true, it usually is. Meaning, of course, it’s not. Unless it is.
Take, for instance, Bruce Arians’ pronouncement that he wants David Johnson to get 30 touches a game for the Cardinals this coming season. On the surface, this sounds like a completely wonderful idea. Johnson is unlike any other running back in the NFL, and he seems perfectly built for the extra workload.
He’s big, but he’s deceptively fast. He’s a pounder between the tackles, yet can bounce off a linebacker, spin out of the arms of a safety and take it to the house. He catches passes out of the backfield better than anyone and can also line up outside as an actual wide receiver and put cornerbacks to shame.
And don’t forget, he used to return kickoffs, too – until the Cardinals quickly wised up and realized how valuable he was strictly on offense.
He’s also just 25 years old. Surely, 30 touches a game wouldn’t make the Cardinals guilty of overusing their young superstar.
“He’s still too young to overuse,” Arians said recently, adding, “I want to have 30 touches out of him, if possible, because that’s going to be a lot of offense. When he has his hands on the ball, either as a wide receiver, coming out of the backfield, in the slot, and running, that’s a hell of a lot of potential offense for us.”
Be careful what you wish for, Bruce, because history hasn’t been terribly kind to NFL running backs who run themselves into the ground.
Some folks in the business call it “The Curse of 370,” which acts like a virtual brick wall for a back. The numbers don’t lie: Typically, when a running back carries the ball 370 or more times in a sea-
son, his next year turns to mush. He either gets injured or he just isn’t the same.
The examples are almost literally too long to mention, so here’s just a few:
» In 2006, Larry Johnson of the Chiefs rushed 416 times – which remains the NFL record – and turned it into 1,789 yards and 17 touchdowns. In 2007, he played in only eight games and finished with 559 yards on 158 carries with three touchdowns.
» In 1998, Jamal Anderson of the Falcons had 410 carries – second-most in history – and ran for 1,846 yards and 14 touchdowns. In 1999, he lasted just two games and ran for 59 yards on 19 carries with no touchdowns.
» In 2014, DeMarco Murray of the Cowboys carried the ball 392 times for 1,845 yards and 13 touchdowns. In 2015 with the Eagles, he finished with 702 yards on 193 carries with six touchdowns.
Noticeable drop-offs after reaching the 370-carry threshold have happened to dozens and dozens of running backs, from Terrell Davis to Michael Turner, from Barry Foster to Marcus Allen, from Gerald Riggs to Eddie George.
It happened only once to Eric Dickerson, but according to the cocktail napkin in my pocket, er, hours of comprehensive data research, he seemed to be a bit of an anomaly on this subject. Yeah, Dickerson might have been a robot.
Ditto with guys such as Walter Payton, Edgerrin James and Emmitt Smith.
But we don’t exactly know for sure just what David Johnson is yet, do we? We do know he suffered a sprained MCL in his left knee during the last game of the regular season. We also know he led the league with 2,118 yards from scrimmage, rushing 293 times for 1,239 yards and catching 80 passes for 879 more. He also scored an NFL-high 20 touchdowns.
But Arians would like more out of Johnson. Predictably, the happy-golucky Johnson has said he’d be fine with that. The problem, however, is that it could end up leaving him a broken-down mess a year from now just when Johnson will be in position to command a massive new contract from the Cardinals.
Is it worth the risk for either of them? David Johnson is, after all, the new face of the franchise, its most lethal weapon.