U.S. Rep. McSally’s GOP-leaning district begins to drift leftward
U.S. Rep. Martha McSally’s hold on southern Arizona’s competitive congressional district may have loosened in recent weeks, three national political analysts say.
Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of Inside Elections, a nonpartisan website that tracks political races, moved McSally’s seat Friday from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.”
It was one of 19 such races nationally that Gonzales sees drifting leftward.
Earlier this month, David Wasserman, House editor at the Cook Political Report, and Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, reached similar conclusions for that race.
McSally’s support for the deeply unpopular GOP health-care bill that passed the House earlier this month is expected to be an issue in the 2018 elections.
A poll conducted earlier this month by a Democratically aligned firm found 53 percent disapprove of McSally’s job performance. Meanwhile, 40 percent approved of how she is doing, according to the poll by Public Policy Polling.
McSally won her second term in Washington last year by easily defeating Democrat Matt Heinz in a district that Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton won by nearly 5 percentage points over Republican President Donald Trump.
“Arizona GOP Rep. Martha McSally took 57 percent in her Tucson district versus President Trump’s 44 percent,” Wasserman wrote. “However, like so many other relatively new Republicans, she has never had to run in a midterm in which voters will view their choice as a referendum on the party in the White House.”
Kondik wrote that the McSally race remains one to watch next year.
“Her district is competitive enough that she’ll have a hard time ever being completely secure, and if the health care bill does become a big issue next year, Democrats will assuredly be referring back to an anecdote about her role in its passage,” he said.
Anthony Barry, McSally’s campaign manager, brushed aside expectations of a tighter race.
“For the majority of the two years leading up to the 2016 election, Stuart Rothenberg (senior editor of Inside Elections) had Martha winning and listed her as ‘lean Republican,’ “Barry said. “After having $500,000 spent by outside groups attacking Martha with a barrage of misleading ads in the last 30 days we are pleased that Inside Elections and Cook Political Report still list Martha as ‘lean Republican’ and winning the seat.”
McSally’s district is among the nation’s most evenly divided between registered Democrats and registered Republicans. She won her first term by just 167 votes. She’s been one of the most prolific fundraisers among House members not holding a leadership role, while cultivating a reputation as a conscientious and moderate lawmaker.
So far, however, McSally has solidly supported the Trump agenda in rollcall votes in the House, according to an analysis by FiveThirtyEight.
The poll by Public Policy Polling found that 56 percent of respondents said they were less likely to vote for McSally when they were told she voted for the GOP health-care bill, which the firm characterized as throwing 24 million off their health coverage.
That is drawn from an estimate of the effects of an earlier version of the bill by the Congressional Budget Office. An updated analysis of the bill is expected next week.
Democrats are eager to make McSally answer for the health-care vote.
“In the aftermath of Congresswoman McSally’s disastrous Repeal & Ripoff vote, avoidance of regular meetings with her constituents, and refusal to support an independent commission to investigate Russia’s meddling in our election, McSally is increasingly unlikely to win re-election,” said Tyler Law, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.