Five to nine hurricanes forecast for Atlantic season
NOAA also calls for 11 to 17 tropical storms
Of the hurricanes, two to four could be major, with wind speeds of 111 mph or higher and rated as Category 3, 4 or 5.
@usatodayweather USA TODAY COLLEGE PARK, MD. The federal government predicts an unusually active 2017 hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin: Five to nine hurricanes are expected to form.
Overall, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts 11 to 17 named tropical storms will develop in the region, which includes the Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, the agency announced Thursday. The season officially begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.
Of the hurricanes, two to four could be major, with wind speeds of 111 mph or higher and rated as Category 3, 4 or 5 on the SaffirSimpson Scale of Hurricane Intensity. An average season typically spawns six hurricanes and peaks in August and September.
A tropical storm contains wind speeds of 39 mph or higher and becomes a hurricane when winds reach 74 mph. Factors contributing to the prediction include: A weak or non-existent El Nino, near- or above-average sea-surface temperatures, and average or weaker-than-average vertical wind shear, said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
Strong El Ninos and wind shear typically suppress development of Atlantic hurricanes.
Already this year, one tropical storm has formed in the Atlantic: Arlene, which spun harmlessly in the middle of the ocean in April. The next named storms will be Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin and Gert.
Meteorologists at Colorado State University last month estimated 11 tropical storms will form, and four would become hurricanes. The late Colorado State University meteorologist William Gray was the first scientist to make seasonal hurricane forecasts in the 1980s.
The Weather Channel predicts an average season: 12 named storms, of which six will become hurricanes. AccuWeather forecasts 10 named storms, five of which are projected to become hurricanes.
This year marks the 25th anniversary of Andrew, which tore into South Florida on Aug. 24, 1992.
Forecasters also released their prediction for the eastern Pacific basin, where 14 to 20 named storms are expected. An average eastern Pacific hurricane season produces 15 named storms.