A look at Trump’s N. Korea options
Pentagon has had ‘worst case’ plans in place since Korean War
Analysts say the U.S. has several broad options for dealing with potential aggression from North Korea. And even though President Donald Trump tweeted Friday that American military plans are “locked and loaded” should North Korea “act unwisely,” the Pentagon has had detailed plans for another conflict in place since the end of the Korean War, in 1953.
Those plans, analysts say, include the potential for a pre-emptive strike to destroy North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missiles; a more limited strike targeting missile sites and nuclear processing plants; a ground war involving U.S. and South Korean troops; a naval blockade; and a nuclear conflict.
“Hopefully (North Korean leader) Kim Jong Un will find another path!” Trump tweeted on Friday.
President Trump tweeted Friday that U.S. military plans are “locked and loaded” and ready to go “should North Korea act unwisely.” In fact, the Pentagon has had detailed plans in place for another conflict since the Korean War ended in 1953.
“The military has planned for the worst case for decades,” said David Maxwell, associate director of Georgetown University’s Center for Security Studies and a retired Army colonel who served five tours in South Korea.
Though the Pentagon never reveals its plans and the many updates it has made over the past 64 years, analysts said there are several broad options:
PRE-EMPTIVE STRIKE
The United States might try to destroy North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missiles in a first strike, but that could easily escalate into a ground, air and sea war that would lead to tens of thousands of casualties, even millions if nuclear weapons were used.
Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said a war on the Korean Peninsula would be “catastrophic,” which is why the focus remains on diplomacy to curb North Korea’s nuclear and missile development programs.
Mark Milley, the Army chief of staff, said the U.S. and South Korean military would “utterly destroy the North Korean military, but that would be done at high cost in terms of human life, in terms of infrastructure.”
LIMITED STRIKE
If the U.S. military were to strike first, it might target North Korea’s missile sites and nuclear processing plants. The problem is that U.S. intelligence agencies may not know where all of them are, and some may be in hardened bunkers that might be impregnable, Maxwell said.
That could leave North Korea with nuclear weapons it could fire at South Korea or another U.S. ally in the region, such as Japan.
The United States might attempt a more limited strike on
N. Korea fight could take several courses railroad lines or ports, said Dean Cheng, an analyst at the Heritage Foundation.
Another limited option would be a cyber strike that could take down the country’s power grid.
TARGET ARTILLERY, ROCKETS
North Korea could devastate Seoul, South Korea’s bustling capital, with conventional artillery and rockets fired from just north of the Demilitarized Zone separating the two countries. The city and surrounding area have a population of 25 million.
The United States and its South Korean allies would try to destroy those conventional weapons as soon as it became clear Seoul might be threatened. That would probably require U.S. and South Korean aircraft in addition to cruise missiles fired from American naval ships. North Korean aircraft and pilots would be no match for American equipment and pilots, Maxwell said.
GROUND WAR
Any large conflict on the Korean Peninsula would draw in ground forces. The peninsula is a formidable place to fight, including mountains, dense woods and cities. Winters can be brutally cold in the mountains.
The United States has about 28,000 service members based in South Korea and could deploy thousands more.
The bulk of the ground force would be South Korean, Maxwell said. The South Koreans have a military of about 650,000 troops and can mobilize a total force of more than 1 million.
They are better trained and equipped than the larger North Korean military, which has 1.2 million in its active force.
Millions of civilians would be at risk.
NAVAL BLOCKADE
U.S. ships might participate in a blockade of North Korea to further isolate the country in event of war and prevent it from importing weapons and supplies.
A blockade might anger China, North Korea’s closest ally and largest trading partner by far. During the Korean War in 195053, China entered on the side of North Korea, helping to push back U.S. and South Korean forces.
It’s not clear whether China would get involved in the fighting this time. China prefers to avoid a war in the peninsula and would be reluctant to help North Korea unless the communist government in Beijing thought its own borders were threatened.
“I suspect they are cursing not only Donald Trump but Kim Jong Un, too,” Cheng said.
NUCLEAR WAR
“The U.S. is very anxious to avoid the first use of nuclear weapons,” said Bruce Bennett, an analyst at RAND Corp.
But if North Korea were to attack a regional ally with a nuclear weapon, Trump could order a retaliatory nuclear strike without prior approval from Congress.