Polls show Flake trailing potential foes
Analysts downgrade the GOP’s chances of holding his seat
The political turbulence facing U.S. Sen. Jeff Flake as he seeks re-election has prompted influential political handicappers to downgrade Republicans’ chances of holding his seat in 2018.
It’s still a year away and a lot can change, but a poll released Tuesday showed Flake, R-Ariz., trailing former state Sen. Kelli Ward of Lake Havasu City by 14 percentage points in Arizona’s 2018 GOP primary race and trailing possible opponent U.S. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., by 8 percentage points in a hypothetical general election matchup.
It was the latest in a series of polls that should serve as a warning to Flake.
And given President Donald Trump’s apparent determination to back a primary opponent to Flake, whom he repeatedly has attacked as “weak” on border security, Flake is in for the fight of his political life.
The nonpartisan and independent political analysts who closely follow Senate races around the country have taken notice of Flake’s precarious polling and are readjusting their expectations for Arizona’s Senate race. Their takes, in turn, are important because they are closely followed by campaign officials, party operatives, financial backers, outside political groups and journalists and help set the narrative about a race.
Sinema, who represents a Phoenixarea congressional district, has not officially announced a Senate candidacy yet, but she has said she’s considering one, and many view her as a potentially formidable, well-financed Democratic candidate.
Given the latest developments, Nathan Gonzales of Inside Elections, who analyzes Senate races for Roll Call, adjusted the Arizona race’s rating from “Leans Republican” to “Tilts Republican,” a less favorable category for the Republicans.
The website Sabato’s Crystal Ball went even further, reclassifying Flake’s re-election race from “Leans Republican” to “Toss Up.”
The Cook Political Reportstill rates the race as “Leans Republican,” but political analyst Jennifer Duffy told The
Arizona Republic that, “If/when Sinema gets in, the rating will change.”
Larry Sabato, the director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics who oversees the Crystal Ball website, said Trump’s ability to mobilize his faithful Arizona supporters should be a big concern for Flake.
“He (Flake) does face an uphill climb, because he’s going to have tough opposition in the primary,” Sabato told The Republic. “That may be the biggest challenge right away, although the opposition could split — two or more could run — and he could win with a plurality. And if he makes it through the primary, then it’s going to be a matter of motivating Republicans to turn out because Sinema is a strong candidate. You can’t ignore her.”
Writing in Roll Call, Gonzales said Flake’s “significant risk of losing voters on both sides of the ideological spectrum” is what prompted Inside Elections to shift its rating of the race toward the Democrats.
“Flake will likely need to dramatically improve among independents and/or Democrats in order to compensate for some lost or missing Republicans whose loyalties lie first with the president,” Gonzales wrote.
After publication of a book Flake authored in which he criticizes the Republican Party’s embrace of Trump, the president praised Ward in a Twitter message. However, Trump ignored Ward during his recent downtown Phoenix rally and speculation continues that other candidates may still get into the GOP race with Trump’s blessing, such as Robert Graham, a former state GOP chairman, or Jeff DeWit, the state treasurer who is close to Trump.
Flake was nonplussed about the ratings changes, saying polling this early does not give an accurate picture of the race a year from now. In the last election cycle, U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., the state’s senior senator, also appeared vulnerable in early polls but went on to defeat his primary opponent, Ward, and his Democratic opponent, then-U.S. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, by double digits.
“Anything at this point doesn’t mean much,” Flake told The Republic.
In other developments:
In a post on Medium.com, Flake made the case for fencing on the U.S.Mexico border instead of the bricksand-mortar wall that Trump has demanded.
“If the ‘border wall’ is simply a metaphor for increased border security, which includes a mix of fencing, sensors, towers and drone surveillance, I strongly support the President,” Flake wrote. “... But an actual brick and mortar border wall is not the most effective or efficient way to secure our border and keep Arizona safe.”
Flake described the sort of fence he would prefer as “a solid steel structure that often rises 20 feet above the ground” but that also would be seethrough.
Trump announced Friday that he intends to nominate Lloyd Claycomb of Scottsdale to be a U.S. representative to the United Nations.
Claycomb is the chief executive of Colorado-based United Builders Service Inc. He gave $100,000 to Trump’s inaugural committee and was a member of Trump’s Transition Finance Committee.
Nowicki is The Arizona Republic’s national political reporter. Follow him on Twitter, @dannowicki.
“He does face an uphill climb, because he’s going to have tough opposition in the primary.” DIRECTOR,LARRY SABATOCENTER FOR POLITICS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA