Martinez’s price keeps going up
D-Backs slugger set to be free agent
SAN FRANCISCO - Just how much money J.D. Martinez commands on the open market this winter is anyone’s guess, but one thing is hard to dispute about the Diamondbacks slugger’s price tag.
“It keeps going up,” a scout with a National League club said.
Martinez entered Friday night’s game against the San Francisco Giants having played 49 games with the Diamondbacks, who acquired him in a July 18 trade with the Detroit Tigers. He had connected for 23 homers for his new team, the second-most in the majors during that time, trailing only the 26 hit by the Marlins’ Giancarlo Stanton.
Martinez was a late scratch on Friday night due to neck stiffness, an issue that isn’t considered serious.
Martinez’s performance has led to speculation about what kind of contract, both in years and dollars, he might land. He figures to be the best bat available on the free-agent market, a power hitter who also hits for average and draws walks. But he’s regarded as a subpar fielder, both by scouts and defensive metrics, and some scouts wonder about how his body and athleticism will respond as he gets older.
Still, a panel of scouts and executives surveyed don’t think Martinez will have any trouble securing a huge deal, drawing comparisons ranging from Hunter Pence’s five-year, $90 million contract to Justin Upton’s six-year, $132.75 million deal. No one expects a deal as long as Jason Heyward’s eight-year, $184 million, but Heyward’s $23 million annual average value could be comparable, one scout said.
Many are also envisioning deep-pocketed clubs, including perhaps the Boston Red Sox, jumping in on the bidding, a factor that could drive up the price.
“I think he’ll get $100 million from a big-market team,” a high-ranking talent evaluator for a National League club said. “He’s going to be much more attractive to teams that can offer designated hitter at-bats, but his bat should get him close to $100 million.”
Martinez said earlier this month he would “love” to return to the Diamondbacks, but it’s hard to envision the club being able to afford him barring an unforeseen development like an increase in spending or the freeing up of payroll space.
Since the start of 2014, Martinez owns a .930 OPS (on-base-plus-slugging), a mark that ranks sixth in the majors behind five players commonly mentioned among the best hitters in baseball: Mike Trout (.994), Joey Votto (.979), Paul Goldschmidt (.962), Bryce Harper (.942) and Stanton (.938).
“I think he’s still improving,” the evaluator said. “He’s just a guy that seems to really know who he is now, and guys like that – with his swing and power – are scary, like late-era David Ortiz.”
Martinez played most of this season at age 29, meaning he’ll be entering his age-30 season. A long-term deal would take him into his mid-30s. For a player whose defense is already considered suspect, that could drive down his earning power in an era when clubs are more focused on defensive value.
“I’ve seen some metrics that rate him as the worst defensive outfielder in baseball,” said a high-ranking evaluator with an American League club. “Clubs are going to have to make an assessment on how the defense is going do with age, and players don’t get better defensively when they’re on the wrong side of 30.”
The evaluator did see an argument for believing Martinez could age well as a hitter.
“He does have that (revamped) swing, and players do get smarter,” he said. “He’s a player who has power and patience and those players tend to age pretty well. The one thing is, with him, how much of that he’s able to tap into is in how well he manages his strikeouts.”
Said the NL scout: “The below-average defensive metrics and some concern about what happens to the body and athleticism could depress his market. But the man is going to get paid.”