What needs to happen for Todd Graham to keep his job?
Arizona State is not yet at the season’s midpoint, but the Sun Devils are close. And since they’re off this weekend, it’s the perfect time to assess where they stand in a season that could end up defining the program for the next few years.
With seven games left in the regular season, the Sun Devils are 2-3 overall and 1-1 in the Pac-12. They face No. 5 Washington on Oct. 14 at Sun Devil Stadium. Insiders Doug Haller and Jeff Metcalfe discuss:
What’s ASU’s most encouraging development through five games?
Haller: N’Keal Harry, and it’s not close. Coming off a strong freshman season, the sophomore receiver has needed just five games to become one of the Pac-12’s top playmakers. The more Harry touches the ball, the better off ASU will be.
Metcalfe: The offense after a somewhat sluggish start is developing an identity under coordinator Billy Napier that includes a semblance of a run game behind resurgent Demario Richard. The pass offense is No. 21 nationally and the Sun Devils are averaging 32 points with potential to go higher in the final seven games.
2. The Sun Devils’ biggest concern?
Haller: Although it’s hard to prove statistically, first-year coordinator Phil Bennett has done a fine job with this defense. Over the past two seasons, the Sun Devils had to lead the nation in blown assignments. That’s not so much the case this season. But they’re still inexperienced in key spots, especially the secondary. All-conference candidate Koron Crump, the team’s best pass rusher, is out for the season. Depth remains thin. In the recent loss at Stanford, ASU just got out-talented. That likely will continue during the meat of the Pac-12 schedule.
Metcalfe: Bennett knows what he’s doing, but inexperience and lack of depth leaves him with limited personnel options, resulting in players moving over from offense. Defensive statistics are only marginally better than last season and down in rush defense. Every game still feels like it takes a shootout to win.
3. How would you assess quarterback Manny Wilkins’ performance?
Haller: When evaluating Wilkins, you have to grasp two things. First, keep in mind what coaches are asking Wilkins to do. Manage the game. Limit turnovers. Move the ball. Second, understand he’s operating behind a struggling offensive line. Entering Friday, only one team in the country has allowed more sacks per game than ASU’s 4.40. Considering those two elements, Wilkins has been solid. He’s competed 65.9 percent of his passes and thrown only two interceptions, one of which was tipped. Perhaps just as important: He hasn’t jeopardized his health when running out of the pocket, something he has to do often.
Metcalfe: Wilkins has been solid enough to largely quiet those clamoring for Alabama transfer Blake Barnett. He is playing with poise, showing leadership, being more selective about when to run and even throwing deep better than expected. He finally was intercepted last week after a school-record streak without a pick but understands the ball protection necessity.
4. Do the Sun Devils have any chance of making a bowl game?
Haller: The math isn’t good. ASU has to win four of seven to reach bowl eligibility and three of those contests are against teams currently ranked in the Top 25. Impossible? No. Beating Colorado at home is within reach. Does UCLA scare anyone, even on the road? Oregon State is beatable. Arizona could be as well. Problem is, ASU has no margin for error. It has to be nearly perfect in all phases, something it has not yet come close to accomplishing.
Metcalfe: Yes, but a slim one. I still don’t see them being talented and consistent enough to win out over the final four games, but they could take three. If that’s the case, then getting to six wins requires winning at least one of the next three with the best chance being Oct. 21 at Utah. A 5-7 (non-bowl) record seems to be the most likely outcome.
5. What needs to happen for coach Todd Graham to keep his job?
Haller: In August, ASU President Michael Crow said that losing records for more than one season in any sport are unacceptable. Graham already is sitting on two. It’s hard to see him surviving a third. Much likely will depend on how the Sun Devils finish. Reaching a low-level bowl probably is the best-case scenario, and even that may not convince anyone the program is back on solid ground. Seven regular-season wins might do it but that would require a 5-2 finish.
Metcalfe: I’m not sure that ending the season with a four-game win streak for 6-6 and playing, say, in the Cactus Bowl would be enough. For Graham to return for a seventh season, the Sun Devils probably need to do one better than that and finish 7-5, again requiring at least one win vs. No. 5 Washington, No. 18 Utah and No. 15 USC. Based on comments by Crow and Vice President of Athletics Ray Anderson, the margin for Graham is thin.